Within 5 minutes of the CPI release, about $200 million in leveraged long positions got wiped out.
The numbers really did come in hot. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Core has now come in at 0.3% for three straight months. The data was released at 8:30 a.m. ET, 9:30 p.m. Beijing time. Before the release, BTC was still hovering around $74,300, but within minutes it plunged below $73,500, breaking through Monday night's low as well.
Then, a little over an hour later, it climbed back above $74,000.
Honestly, this move wasn't surprising. Even before the release, the probability of a rate hike in December was already around 84%. Waller had pretty much said it all earlier in the day; the CPI data just confirmed what everyone was already thinking. The main casualties were leveraged longs betting the data would come in cool.
But don't rush to call this a relief rally. ETH is still down around 2% over the past 24 hours, dipped below $2,050 intraday, and hit an 11-week low. It's clearly much weaker than BTC. Next, we'll be watching whether the December FOMC raises rates by 25 or 50 bps. Waller said that if core inflation comes in above 0.3%, a 50-bp hike could be considered. If next month's data runs a little hotter, they'll have to follow through on that 😅
For now, I'm watching just two things: whether BTC can hold the $73,500 low, and whether ETFs keep seeing outflows this week.
#CPI #美联储加息 #BTC
$BTC $ETH
The numbers really did come in hot. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Core has now come in at 0.3% for three straight months. The data was released at 8:30 a.m. ET, 9:30 p.m. Beijing time. Before the release, BTC was still hovering around $74,300, but within minutes it plunged below $73,500, breaking through Monday night's low as well.
Then, a little over an hour later, it climbed back above $74,000.
Honestly, this move wasn't surprising. Even before the release, the probability of a rate hike in December was already around 84%. Waller had pretty much said it all earlier in the day; the CPI data just confirmed what everyone was already thinking. The main casualties were leveraged longs betting the data would come in cool.
But don't rush to call this a relief rally. ETH is still down around 2% over the past 24 hours, dipped below $2,050 intraday, and hit an 11-week low. It's clearly much weaker than BTC. Next, we'll be watching whether the December FOMC raises rates by 25 or 50 bps. Waller said that if core inflation comes in above 0.3%, a 50-bp hike could be considered. If next month's data runs a little hotter, they'll have to follow through on that 😅
For now, I'm watching just two things: whether BTC can hold the $73,500 low, and whether ETFs keep seeing outflows this week.
#CPI #美联储加息 #BTC
$BTC $ETH