CPI just came out: headline month-over-month was 0.4%, versus expectations of 0.3%; core was 0.3%, versus expectations of 0.2%. Both came in hotter than expected.
But listen up, guys: tonight’s number isn’t as important as everyone thinks.
A few minutes before the data came out, the market had already priced in a 100% probability of a December rate hike: 98.9% for a 25-basis-point hike, and 0% for no change. That December move was already set in stone—we didn’t need to wait for tonight’s numbers. What really shifted tonight was the outlook beyond December: the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike by next January has climbed to 34.8%.
BTC had a pretty brutal 15-minute candle at 9:30: first it surged to 74770, then plunged to 73525—a 1245-dollar swing that liquidated positions on both sides. The market makers love pulling this kind of move at times like these.
When I wrote my preview this morning, I said the probability of a rate hike was around 80%. By tonight, it was at 100%. I underestimated it—fair enough.
BTC is now at 73838. The 50-week moving average is 75535, leaving a gap of 1697—wider than the 1188 gap this afternoon. I’m still leaning bearish here. If tonight’s low of 73525 breaks again, the next support is even lower. I’ll change my tune when it gets back above 75535.
Gold took a hit tonight too, dropping to 4043. #CPI前瞻12月利率走向迎关键考验
But listen up, guys: tonight’s number isn’t as important as everyone thinks.
A few minutes before the data came out, the market had already priced in a 100% probability of a December rate hike: 98.9% for a 25-basis-point hike, and 0% for no change. That December move was already set in stone—we didn’t need to wait for tonight’s numbers. What really shifted tonight was the outlook beyond December: the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike by next January has climbed to 34.8%.
BTC had a pretty brutal 15-minute candle at 9:30: first it surged to 74770, then plunged to 73525—a 1245-dollar swing that liquidated positions on both sides. The market makers love pulling this kind of move at times like these.
When I wrote my preview this morning, I said the probability of a rate hike was around 80%. By tonight, it was at 100%. I underestimated it—fair enough.
BTC is now at 73838. The 50-week moving average is 75535, leaving a gap of 1697—wider than the 1188 gap this afternoon. I’m still leaning bearish here. If tonight’s low of 73525 breaks again, the next support is even lower. I’ll change my tune when it gets back above 75535.
Gold took a hit tonight too, dropping to 4043. #CPI前瞻12月利率走向迎关键考验
