Nine of the ten coins are down. The only one in positive territory has trading volume of just 5% of its seven-day average. $7.7 million—that’s TON’s entire trading volume over the past 24 hours. Its price is 1.60, up 0.95%.
This gain doesn’t tell us much. The real level is below.
All the way down
BNB at 684.73, down 0.05%, the smallest decline. Volume is 0.5x, but it is also 4.56% below MA25. DOGE at 0.06904, down 1.06%, with volume at 0.49x. Its low today was 0.06801, just 1% above its monthly low of 0.0673.
$BTC 73830.51, down 1.19%. It is only 2.8% up from the bottom of its 30-day range, the lowest among the ten coins; it is just $14.7 above its monthly low of 73510. Its Bollinger position is 4.3%, RSI is 34.1, and MA7 at 76050 is still 2.9% above it. It hasn’t broken through, but that’s all it has managed.
ADA is at 0.1763, down 1.78%; LINK is at 10.399, down 1.89%. Volume for both is around 0.5x, and today's lows are each only about 1.5% above their monthly lows.
Breakdown
ETH is at 2068.39, down 2.70%. Today's low was 2028.32, exactly matching the 30-day low. It closed 1.3% below the lower Bollinger Band at 2095.71, with an RSI of 30.2, 10.34% below the MA25, and volume at 0.67x. The drop hasn't been especially sharp, but it's been inching lower every step of the way. It hit this month's low today almost in passing, with no second test.
The lowest one
$XRP also made a new low at 1.05, likewise matching its 30-day low. The current price is 1.0656, down 2.96%, just 1.5% above that low. From the 24-hour high of 1.1168, it's down 4.59%.
Why single it out today? Of the three coins making new lows, its RSI is 24.2, versus 30.2 for ETH and 24.8 for SOL. All three broke down, but its indicators have fallen the furthest.
Its distance from the averages is also the ugliest. The MA25 is at 1.2572, 15.24% above the current price—among the widest gaps of the ten coins. The MA99 is at 1.3162, a 19% gap. The lower Bollinger Band is at 1.0874, and the price is already 2.0% below it. Along with ETH, it's one of only two that closed outside the lower band. Its 30-day percentile is 4.2%, only a little above BTC's 2.8%.
Trading volume was $129.7 million, or 0.72x, among the highest after AVAX. Even as it fell to its monthly low, volume was more than 20% below the seven-day average. Sellers didn't step up, and buyers didn't show up either. The MACD histogram is still below zero, with no sign of turning around.
To confirm that this down move is really taking hold, we need to see whether it can test 1.05 on volume above 1x. At the current volume, it looks more like nobody is buying than someone is dumping. Those two things look different on a chart, and the next few days will tell us which it is.
SOL is at 84.25, down 2.98%. Its low of 82.61 is also the 30-day low. RSI is 24.8, it's 13.34% below the MA25, and volume is at 0.61x. It's on the same rung as XRP, just a little closer to its moving average.
The one with rising volume
$AVAX is down 5.95% at 8.31, the biggest decline, with volume at 1.18x—the only one of the ten above 1. But it's up 0.16% over the last four hours, also the only one in the green; its MACD histogram is 0.012897, the largest positive reading among the ten.
It swung from 9.014 to 8.234, a range of 9.47%, wider than its own ATR of 6.85%. At 8.31, it's just 0.38% below the MA7 at 8.3414—one step away from getting above it. A move above would count as a rebound; if it can't, it's still just a wobble in a weak market.
Where it closes
The picture is clear today: the lows are new, but participation is at its lowest. The three coins that broke down had volume of 0.61x to 0.72x. All ten coins were negative over the 12-hour period; over the last four hours, nine fell and one rose. Even SOL, the least affected, was down just 0.25%.
Line up volume across the board and, apart from AVAX at 1.18x, all nine others are below 0.72x. Four are clustered in the narrow 0.48x–0.50x range. There was no concentrated selling or rush to buy the dip during these few hours of the U.S. session; prices just drifted around near the lows. Selling pressure isn't heavy, but buyers aren't showing up either.
At tomorrow's open, watch three things first: whether XRP can reclaim the lower band at 1.0874; whether BTC's 73510 gets a real test; and whether AVAX can get above 8.3414. If two of the three happen, then this level may start to look like it has some support.
The levels on the chart are calculated from the data; how you position your trades is up to you. At places like this, near the monthly low, one wick can sweep out a whole layer of people.
Let's leave it at that for now. We'll talk tomorrow.
Will 1.05 still hold tomorrow?