Headline +0.4%, core +0.3%. [Somewhat bearish] The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released October CPI right on time tonight at 21:30 Beijing time. The Dow Jones survey that markets widely used as a reference beforehand expected headline inflation of 0.3% and core inflation of 0.2%. Both came in noticeably higher.
Bitcoin initially surged to 74770 in the minute the data was released, then promptly plunged to a low of 73524.73. Compared with 74410 before the release, the bottom of the wick was down about 1.2%. ETH was hit harder, dropping from around 2098 to 2028.32 in one go, down about 3.3%. At around 21:46, I saw Bitcoin rebound to around 73955 and ETH to around 2071. Some of the wick had been retraced, but prices were still below their pre-release levels.
First, the official figures. In October, seasonally adjusted month-over-month headline inflation slowed to +0.4% from +0.6% in September, while core inflation stayed at +0.3% for a third consecutive month. Food was +0.5%, energy +0.7%, and shelter +0.3%. Because there was no data collection last October due to the shutdown, most year-over-year figures could not be published this time, leaving out an anchor markets often watch. I’m looking at publicly available minute-level spot charts; the plunge happened on the 21:30 candle and was not the same move as the compliance-related news from earlier this evening.
The 0.3% and 0.2% expectations came from the Dow Jones survey cited by the media before the release, not from a BLS forecast. If that reference is roughly accurate, tonight’s data cannot be interpreted as “lower than last month, so it’s bullish.” Month-over-month inflation did indeed slow from September’s 0.6%, but the market had already been betting on a further cooldown, with core inflation falling to 0.2%. Instead, core inflation didn’t budge, and headline inflation didn’t reach 0.3% either. Inflation is cooling, but not by enough—that’s why the report leans bearish.
Personally, I see this as a modest upside surprise, not a major blowout. The initial rally, sharp selloff, and subsequent rebound are a common pattern when data comes out. We can’t say that a rate hike is now a done deal; all we can say is that some people were pricing in the possibility of another tightening step in December before the release, and tonight’s figures don’t really support the reassuring narrative that “inflation is cooling smoothly.” Next, watch whether the recent lows of 73524 and 2028 hold, and how the market revises its outlook. Don’t mistake a single minute-long wick for a trend reversal.
Which matters more to you: that month-over-month inflation has slowed from last month, or that core inflation has stayed at 0.3% for three straight months, cooling less than expected? Share your thoughts in the comments.#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
$BTC $ETH
Personal opinion, not investment advice
Bitcoin initially surged to 74770 in the minute the data was released, then promptly plunged to a low of 73524.73. Compared with 74410 before the release, the bottom of the wick was down about 1.2%. ETH was hit harder, dropping from around 2098 to 2028.32 in one go, down about 3.3%. At around 21:46, I saw Bitcoin rebound to around 73955 and ETH to around 2071. Some of the wick had been retraced, but prices were still below their pre-release levels.
First, the official figures. In October, seasonally adjusted month-over-month headline inflation slowed to +0.4% from +0.6% in September, while core inflation stayed at +0.3% for a third consecutive month. Food was +0.5%, energy +0.7%, and shelter +0.3%. Because there was no data collection last October due to the shutdown, most year-over-year figures could not be published this time, leaving out an anchor markets often watch. I’m looking at publicly available minute-level spot charts; the plunge happened on the 21:30 candle and was not the same move as the compliance-related news from earlier this evening.
The 0.3% and 0.2% expectations came from the Dow Jones survey cited by the media before the release, not from a BLS forecast. If that reference is roughly accurate, tonight’s data cannot be interpreted as “lower than last month, so it’s bullish.” Month-over-month inflation did indeed slow from September’s 0.6%, but the market had already been betting on a further cooldown, with core inflation falling to 0.2%. Instead, core inflation didn’t budge, and headline inflation didn’t reach 0.3% either. Inflation is cooling, but not by enough—that’s why the report leans bearish.
Personally, I see this as a modest upside surprise, not a major blowout. The initial rally, sharp selloff, and subsequent rebound are a common pattern when data comes out. We can’t say that a rate hike is now a done deal; all we can say is that some people were pricing in the possibility of another tightening step in December before the release, and tonight’s figures don’t really support the reassuring narrative that “inflation is cooling smoothly.” Next, watch whether the recent lows of 73524 and 2028 hold, and how the market revises its outlook. Don’t mistake a single minute-long wick for a trend reversal.
Which matters more to you: that month-over-month inflation has slowed from last month, or that core inflation has stayed at 0.3% for three straight months, cooling less than expected? Share your thoughts in the comments.#CPI高于预期，美股与BTC再度承压
$BTC $ETH
Personal opinion, not investment advice
