CPI is out, and the numbers don't look good! #CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
October seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected—0.1 percentage point higher
Don't underestimate that 0.1. Before the data came out, CME was already pricing in a 98.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, and a 0% probability of no change. The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike by January was 34.8%.
In other words, the market has gone straight from betting on rate cuts to betting on rate hikes. That shift itself is the biggest bearish signal.
The market reaction was immediate: ETH's sudden wick just plunged from 2,115 to around 2,028, and has now bounced back to around 2,057.
The fact that it recovered after the wick suggests there's support below, but the overall price level has already moved down. This isn't a bottom—it's sentiment playing out.
My take: Inflation hasn't given the Fed a reason to ease, so the hawkish stance is likely to continue. Risk assets may face further downward pressure.
At times like this, the two biggest mistakes are: first, seeing it bounce back and assuming everything is fine, then chasing longs; second, panicking and selling after a drop!
My strategy is unchanged: don't rush into a short position right now! Wait for the market to rally first! Ethereum is currently above support at 2,050! Continue to watch for shorts after the U.S. stock market opens; stay short Nvidia, the memory sector, and major cryptocurrencies! Not sure which direction to take? Join Fish Boss's chatroom—we'll notify you when it's time to get in 👉👉 鱼总专属行情分析室
#黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查
October seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected—0.1 percentage point higher
Don't underestimate that 0.1. Before the data came out, CME was already pricing in a 98.9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, and a 0% probability of no change. The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike by January was 34.8%.
In other words, the market has gone straight from betting on rate cuts to betting on rate hikes. That shift itself is the biggest bearish signal.
The market reaction was immediate: ETH's sudden wick just plunged from 2,115 to around 2,028, and has now bounced back to around 2,057.
The fact that it recovered after the wick suggests there's support below, but the overall price level has already moved down. This isn't a bottom—it's sentiment playing out.
My take: Inflation hasn't given the Fed a reason to ease, so the hawkish stance is likely to continue. Risk assets may face further downward pressure.
At times like this, the two biggest mistakes are: first, seeing it bounce back and assuming everything is fine, then chasing longs; second, panicking and selling after a drop!
My strategy is unchanged: don't rush into a short position right now! Wait for the market to rally first! Ethereum is currently above support at 2,050! Continue to watch for shorts after the U.S. stock market opens; stay short Nvidia, the memory sector, and major cryptocurrencies! Not sure which direction to take? Join Fish Boss's chatroom—we'll notify you when it's time to get in 👉👉 鱼总专属行情分析室
#黄仁勋因婚外情致歉，英伟达启动独立调查
