Bottom line up front: Waller made a 25-basis-point hike in December his baseline, even if October inflation improves from September. If core inflation is still around 0.3% or higher, he’ll also have to consider 50 basis points. Don’t take Monday’s rebound in semiconductor leveraged ETFs as a sign that the rate-hike trade is off—and don’t expect it to have already carried risk appetite over to crypto tonight.

Key data: The Fed’s website published Waller’s remarks in London on November 10. He said that even if inflation improves in October, he would still lean toward supporting a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. If the October CPI released later is similar to the previous two months, with core inflation at 0.3% or higher, then a 50-basis-point hike should be considered; raising rates by only 25 basis points would put credibility at risk. This is his personal view, not a committee decision. The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled the October CPI release for 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, or 9:30 p.m. Shanghai time; the data had not yet been released when this was written. The Dow Jones consensus was around 0.3% month over month for headline CPI and around 0.2% for core CPI. Most components won’t have year-over-year figures this time because prices were not collected during the October 2025 shutdown. Reuters cited Monday’s closing prices for federal funds futures, which implied roughly an 85% probability of raising the December target range to 4.00%–4.25%.

First, the core contradiction. On one hand, officials have already framed a December rate hike as the baseline, and gold fell after the remarks. On the other, the 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF is still digesting Monday’s rebound in U.S. stocks. It has pulled back from the day’s high, but still looks sharply higher over 24 hours. Treating the aftereffects as a new easing trade would get the direction of the transmission wrong.

Three sets of Gate perpetual futures data, timestamped around 21:24 Shanghai time.

First, $SOXL price and open interest. It’s around 54.2, up about 15.2% over 24 hours, with a day high of 57.84 and a low of 47.03. Trading volume is about 763 million U. Notional open interest is about 246 million U; the account long/short ratio is about 2.72, while the large-trader ratio by positions is about 0.87. Funding is near zero. On the hourly chart, after U.S. markets opened Monday, it rallied from around 47 to 56, touched 57.84 overnight, then repeatedly fell back below 55. Around 17:00, it gave back gains alongside the remarks. This is the aftereffect of Monday’s recovery, not new easing being priced in tonight.

Second, $XAU gold. It’s around 4081, down about 1.3% over 24 hours, with a day high of 4154.98 and a low of 4076.96. Trading volume is about 405 million U. Notional open interest is about 213 million U; the account long/short ratio is about 2.19, and the large-trader ratios are about 0.84 by positions and 0.57 by accounts. Funding is near zero. The 17:00 hourly candle saw heavy selling, dropping from around 4121 to 4096, followed by a dip to 4077. Gold was first to price in a tighter policy path.

Third, Bitcoin as a gauge of whether risk appetite is following through—not as tonight’s main focus. It’s around 74280, down about 0.5% over 24 hours, with a day high of 75536 and a low of 74089. Trading volume is about 4.73 billion U. Notional open interest is about 4.52 billion U; funding is around 0.01% per 8 hours, the account long/short ratio is about 2.22, and the large-trader ratio by positions is about 0.71. It gave back gains alongside gold from 17:00 to 18:00, and has yet to reclaim the overnight high of 75536.

My take: the transmission is currently split. Waller himself has already made a 25-basis-point hike the December baseline, and gold fell first. The 24-hour surge in the leveraged semiconductor ETF mainly reflects Monday’s Nasdaq rebound. At the time of writing, it has already fallen back from 57.84 to around 54 and hasn’t held above 55.

What would invalidate this view: $SOXL reclaims and holds above 55 on heavy volume, while notional open interest rises above 280 million U and holds there; at the same time, gold reclaims 4155 on heavy volume and Bitcoin reclaims and holds above 75536. If all that happens, “the aftereffects aren’t a return to easing” is no longer valid.

Watch three signals next. First, October CPI month over month at 21:30 Shanghai time, especially whether core inflation comes in at 0.3% or higher. Second, whether $SOXL can regain and hold above 55 after the U.S. market opens. Third, whether gold holds 4077 and can reclaim 4155.

Let’s check yesterday’s calls. I wrote that the board investigation wasn’t proof of a leak; invalidation required Nvidia to hold above 185, broad-market open interest to rise above 45 million U, and crypto stocks to hold above 140. Tonight, Nvidia is around 177, crypto stocks around 134, and broad-market notional open interest is still around 39 million U. None of the three conditions have been met. One of the November 8 invalidation levels was SOXL holding above 55. It touched 57.84 today but has since fallen back to around 54, so that box can’t be checked yet.

One last question: are you more concerned about whether tonight’s CPI will put a 50-basis-point hike on the table, or whether $SOXL can regain and hold above 55?

For market observation only; not investment advice.

$SOXL $XAU