🚨 The Fed’s rate hikes may not be over yet! 45 economists think there will be at least two more hikes. Is the crypto market about to face another liquidity test?
The market was still hoping for a shift in U.S. monetary policy, but the latest survey has poured cold water on those expectations!
On November 10, a Reuters survey found that 56 of the 101 economists surveyed thought a December rate hike could be the last one in this tightening cycle, or about 55%.
But on the other hand, 45 economists believe the Fed will raise rates at least twice more. That group even includes more than half of the primary dealers surveyed.
Why are opinions so divided about where interest rates are headed?
The main reason is that inflation has not really been brought under control!
Although tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat and crude oil futures have fallen more than 22% from their late-October peak, falling oil prices do not mean inflationary pressures have disappeared entirely.
The labor market remains strong, the economy is resilient, and inflation has stayed above the Fed’s 2% target for nearly six years. Wells Fargo’s chief economist even believes that if inflation data continue to rise, the Fed would have every reason to raise rates again.
🧠 My take: The biggest risk in the market right now isn’t the rate hikes themselves—it’s that people are too quick to believe they’re over!
This signal is especially important for the crypto market.
If inflation data continue to come in hotter than expected, the Fed may keep interest rates high or even tighten monetary policy further. As funding costs rise and market liquidity comes under pressure, risk assets like BTC and ETH will naturally find it difficult to sustain an easy upward trend.
Conversely, if inflation cools significantly and rate-cut expectations pick up again, that could give risk assets fresh momentum.
🔥 Don’t just stare at candlestick charts and guess which way prices will move. What you really need to watch closely is inflation data and the Fed’s stance.
The market can rebound suddenly, but the direction of macro liquidity is what determines how far it can go!
Remember this: rate-cut expectations can fuel speculation, but real liquidity ultimately comes down to what the data say!
The market was still hoping for a shift in U.S. monetary policy, but the latest survey has poured cold water on those expectations!
On November 10, a Reuters survey found that 56 of the 101 economists surveyed thought a December rate hike could be the last one in this tightening cycle, or about 55%.
But on the other hand, 45 economists believe the Fed will raise rates at least twice more. That group even includes more than half of the primary dealers surveyed.
Why are opinions so divided about where interest rates are headed?
The main reason is that inflation has not really been brought under control!
Although tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat and crude oil futures have fallen more than 22% from their late-October peak, falling oil prices do not mean inflationary pressures have disappeared entirely.
The labor market remains strong, the economy is resilient, and inflation has stayed above the Fed’s 2% target for nearly six years. Wells Fargo’s chief economist even believes that if inflation data continue to rise, the Fed would have every reason to raise rates again.
🧠 My take: The biggest risk in the market right now isn’t the rate hikes themselves—it’s that people are too quick to believe they’re over!
This signal is especially important for the crypto market.
If inflation data continue to come in hotter than expected, the Fed may keep interest rates high or even tighten monetary policy further. As funding costs rise and market liquidity comes under pressure, risk assets like BTC and ETH will naturally find it difficult to sustain an easy upward trend.
Conversely, if inflation cools significantly and rate-cut expectations pick up again, that could give risk assets fresh momentum.
🔥 Don’t just stare at candlestick charts and guess which way prices will move. What you really need to watch closely is inflation data and the Fed’s stance.
The market can rebound suddenly, but the direction of macro liquidity is what determines how far it can go!
Remember this: rate-cut expectations can fuel speculation, but real liquidity ultimately comes down to what the data say!
