I’ll discuss this question from angle one:
Angle 1: Due to the tech stock pullback, market expectations for Anthropic’s IPO valuation have fallen from $2 trillion to around $1.5 trillion. What range do you think its final offering valuation will fall into? Can it hold the $1 trillion threshold?
First, this question feels a little inaccurate, because Anthropic has already set its target at $1 trillion, with a U.S. share offering price of $70–78. So I don’t think the question is whether it can hold that level anymore, but whether the company actually wants to. Here’s my take:
1) Last night, Anthropic sent documents to banks listing a price of $70–80 per share and an offering of about 866.7 million shares, which would raise about $69.3 billion at the top of the range. The company then urgently withdrew them, saying the “pricing information was inaccurate.” Today, during the official roadshow, it gave a range of $70–78 per share, with an offering of 825 million shares and a maximum fundraising amount of about $64.4 billion. This shows that the company itself is being rather conservative. It suggests the company is still quite worried about a weak market, so it lowered the bar itself. That way, any piece of good news afterward can easily push the stock higher.
2) The actual size of the cornerstone subscriptions is $26 billion. Seven companies—Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, and TSMC—have agreed to privately subscribe for $26 billion worth of Class N ordinary shares at the IPO price. That’s 40% of the total, effectively providing a guaranteed floor, but so far there hasn’t been the kind of excitement we saw with spcx. The main reason is that tech stocks have plunged recently, and the market is fearful. This is also why, as noted in point 1), the company proactively priced the offering at $1 trillion.
3) U.S. stocks rebounded after hitting bottom between last night and today, but the rebound itself has actually weakened Anthropic’s narrative of urgency. If the market kept collapsing, Anthropic could tell a story about how its discounted offering was attractive as a counter-cyclical pricing move. But now that the market has recovered, investors may instead ask: if the panic is over, why are you only willing to value the company at $1 trillion? The rebound has improved sentiment, but it hasn’t repaired the valuation framework for AI stocks, which have been repriced. The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 technology sector has dropped from 32x a year ago to around 17x, falling below the overall market for the first time. So Anthropic is unlikely to see a big surge.
Taking everything into account, it will most likely fail to hold $1 trillion and will fall below its IPO price.
#Anthropic拒绝延期IPO，本周路演估值几何？
Angle 1: Due to the tech stock pullback, market expectations for Anthropic’s IPO valuation have fallen from $2 trillion to around $1.5 trillion. What range do you think its final offering valuation will fall into? Can it hold the $1 trillion threshold?
First, this question feels a little inaccurate, because Anthropic has already set its target at $1 trillion, with a U.S. share offering price of $70–78. So I don’t think the question is whether it can hold that level anymore, but whether the company actually wants to. Here’s my take:
1) Last night, Anthropic sent documents to banks listing a price of $70–80 per share and an offering of about 866.7 million shares, which would raise about $69.3 billion at the top of the range. The company then urgently withdrew them, saying the “pricing information was inaccurate.” Today, during the official roadshow, it gave a range of $70–78 per share, with an offering of 825 million shares and a maximum fundraising amount of about $64.4 billion. This shows that the company itself is being rather conservative. It suggests the company is still quite worried about a weak market, so it lowered the bar itself. That way, any piece of good news afterward can easily push the stock higher.
2) The actual size of the cornerstone subscriptions is $26 billion. Seven companies—Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, and TSMC—have agreed to privately subscribe for $26 billion worth of Class N ordinary shares at the IPO price. That’s 40% of the total, effectively providing a guaranteed floor, but so far there hasn’t been the kind of excitement we saw with spcx. The main reason is that tech stocks have plunged recently, and the market is fearful. This is also why, as noted in point 1), the company proactively priced the offering at $1 trillion.
3) U.S. stocks rebounded after hitting bottom between last night and today, but the rebound itself has actually weakened Anthropic’s narrative of urgency. If the market kept collapsing, Anthropic could tell a story about how its discounted offering was attractive as a counter-cyclical pricing move. But now that the market has recovered, investors may instead ask: if the panic is over, why are you only willing to value the company at $1 trillion? The rebound has improved sentiment, but it hasn’t repaired the valuation framework for AI stocks, which have been repriced. The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 technology sector has dropped from 32x a year ago to around 17x, falling below the overall market for the first time. So Anthropic is unlikely to see a big surge.
Taking everything into account, it will most likely fail to hold $1 trillion and will fall below its IPO price.
#Anthropic拒绝延期IPO，本周路演估值几何？
