Market-maker perspective: $BTC spent the whole day grinding between 74,100 and 75,000. How to read the hour before CPI?
๐ 20:38 snapshot (OKX perpetuals)
Price: 74,219.5; 24h high: 75,549.4 / low: 74,073.9; 24h change: approximately -0.86%
OI: 35,814.6 coins, worth approximately $2.657 billion, up about 1,152.0 coins from midday
Current funding rate: 0.0025%/8h; next settlement at 00:00
Sample of 100 trades over approximately 4.7 seconds: 197.25 in aggressive buys / 73.4 in sells; for reference only
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๐ Full-day recap: 75,000 held for two candles, then gave way for the next ten
The 08:00 candle closed at 75,044.2 and the 09:00 candle at 75,043.2. Both closed above 75,000, by just $44.2 / $43.2โnot a particularly solid hold.
The 10:00 candle closed at 74,837.7, the first close below 75,000, by $162.3; the 11:00 candle closed at 74,540.8, another step down, $459.2 below the level.
All eight candles from 12:00โ19:00 closed below 75,000. The highest close was 74,801.4 at 15:00, still $198.6 short of the level. The 13:00 high of 74,975.5 and the 15:00 high of 74,960 both came within reach of 75,000, but neither wick made it through.
Neither of the midday post's two invalidation levels was triggered today: the 12:00 candle did not close back above 75,000, and there was no close below 74,100. The 18:00 low was 74,073.9 and the 19:00 low was 74,088.8โboth wicks pierced 74,100, but the candles closed at 74,191.8 / 74,380, holding above it. The 20:00 candle is still in progress, with a low of 74,105 so far, also above 74,100.
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๐ If I were the market maker
Today's move wasn't a sharp drop; it was a grind: price slipped from 74,696.3 to 74,219.5, while OI increased by about 1,152 coins. New positions are being opened, but the direction won't be clear until after CPI. Funding has cooled to 0.0025%; neither bulls nor bears are in a hurry to add, and nobody wants to show their hand in the hour before the data.
74,100 was pierced by wicks twice today, but both candles closed above it. The current price of 74,219.5 is only $119.5 awayโtonight, this is the first key test.
October CPI is released tonight at 21:30 SGT, in less than an hour. The 20:00 candle, which closes at 21:00, is the last full candle before CPI. CPI lands during the 21:00 candle; the first candle close that can confirm a direction is at 22:00 (the 21:00 candle). I won't guess the direction before the data; I'll watch the closes.
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๐ Retail traders following the market maker: wait for a confirmed close
Invalidation levels (all based on 1H candle closes):
Break above: If a 1H candle closes above 75,000, the pre-CPI weakness is temporarily on hold; next watch 75,300โ75,600. A 1H close above 75,600 would trigger a short squeeze; next watch 75,900โ76,200.
Break below: If a 1H candle closes below 74,100, downside pressure begins; next watch 73,800โ74,100 and 73,200โ73,500.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
๐ 20:38 snapshot (OKX perpetuals)
Price: 74,219.5; 24h high: 75,549.4 / low: 74,073.9; 24h change: approximately -0.86%
OI: 35,814.6 coins, worth approximately $2.657 billion, up about 1,152.0 coins from midday
Current funding rate: 0.0025%/8h; next settlement at 00:00
Sample of 100 trades over approximately 4.7 seconds: 197.25 in aggressive buys / 73.4 in sells; for reference only
โโโ
๐ Full-day recap: 75,000 held for two candles, then gave way for the next ten
The 08:00 candle closed at 75,044.2 and the 09:00 candle at 75,043.2. Both closed above 75,000, by just $44.2 / $43.2โnot a particularly solid hold.
The 10:00 candle closed at 74,837.7, the first close below 75,000, by $162.3; the 11:00 candle closed at 74,540.8, another step down, $459.2 below the level.
All eight candles from 12:00โ19:00 closed below 75,000. The highest close was 74,801.4 at 15:00, still $198.6 short of the level. The 13:00 high of 74,975.5 and the 15:00 high of 74,960 both came within reach of 75,000, but neither wick made it through.
Neither of the midday post's two invalidation levels was triggered today: the 12:00 candle did not close back above 75,000, and there was no close below 74,100. The 18:00 low was 74,073.9 and the 19:00 low was 74,088.8โboth wicks pierced 74,100, but the candles closed at 74,191.8 / 74,380, holding above it. The 20:00 candle is still in progress, with a low of 74,105 so far, also above 74,100.
โโโ
๐ If I were the market maker
Today's move wasn't a sharp drop; it was a grind: price slipped from 74,696.3 to 74,219.5, while OI increased by about 1,152 coins. New positions are being opened, but the direction won't be clear until after CPI. Funding has cooled to 0.0025%; neither bulls nor bears are in a hurry to add, and nobody wants to show their hand in the hour before the data.
74,100 was pierced by wicks twice today, but both candles closed above it. The current price of 74,219.5 is only $119.5 awayโtonight, this is the first key test.
October CPI is released tonight at 21:30 SGT, in less than an hour. The 20:00 candle, which closes at 21:00, is the last full candle before CPI. CPI lands during the 21:00 candle; the first candle close that can confirm a direction is at 22:00 (the 21:00 candle). I won't guess the direction before the data; I'll watch the closes.
โโโ
๐ Retail traders following the market maker: wait for a confirmed close
Invalidation levels (all based on 1H candle closes):
Break above: If a 1H candle closes above 75,000, the pre-CPI weakness is temporarily on hold; next watch 75,300โ75,600. A 1H close above 75,600 would trigger a short squeeze; next watch 75,900โ76,200.
Break below: If a 1H candle closes below 74,100, downside pressure begins; next watch 73,800โ74,100 and 73,200โ73,500.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
