$201 million flowed out again, but this time, the money didn’t all flee together.
On November 9, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $201 million, marking a third consecutive day of outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $213 million flow out—$12 million more than the entire market’s net outflow. In other words, funds outside BlackRock actually saw a combined net inflow of $12 million. Morgan Stanley’s new fund, MSBT, brought in $22.06 million in a single day, making it the biggest buyer that day.
IBIT has now seen net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.66 billion over that period—nearly 80% of the market-wide $2.13 billion in outflows. Ethereum ETFs have also seen outflows for three straight days, with $185 million flowing out on November 9. Combined BTC and ETH outflows totaled $386 million.
I don’t think this round of outflows is a market-wide retreat. It’s concentrated redemptions from BlackRock alone: the giant is selling, while new money is coming in through other doors. With Bitcoin stuck near $74,300 and the Fear Index at 27, if this divergence continues, what price is grinding away isn’t direction—it’s time.
October CPI data comes out in an hour (forecasts: headline +0.3%, core +0.2%). Once the data is released, we’ll see whether IBIT stops selling tomorrow.
Invalidation level: If Bitcoin closes below $73,200 (the 200-day moving average) for two consecutive days, and IBIT sees another daily net outflow of more than $200 million, the divergence thesis is invalidated, with $70,000 as the next downside target.
Do you think the wave of IBIT redemptions will pause after CPI, or are seven straight days of outflows just the beginning—and will they keep dragging prices down?
$BTC $ETH
#BitcoinSpotETFsPost$201MNetOutflowForThirdStraightDay #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
On November 9, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $201 million, marking a third consecutive day of outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw $213 million flow out—$12 million more than the entire market’s net outflow. In other words, funds outside BlackRock actually saw a combined net inflow of $12 million. Morgan Stanley’s new fund, MSBT, brought in $22.06 million in a single day, making it the biggest buyer that day.
IBIT has now seen net outflows for seven consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.66 billion over that period—nearly 80% of the market-wide $2.13 billion in outflows. Ethereum ETFs have also seen outflows for three straight days, with $185 million flowing out on November 9. Combined BTC and ETH outflows totaled $386 million.
I don’t think this round of outflows is a market-wide retreat. It’s concentrated redemptions from BlackRock alone: the giant is selling, while new money is coming in through other doors. With Bitcoin stuck near $74,300 and the Fear Index at 27, if this divergence continues, what price is grinding away isn’t direction—it’s time.
October CPI data comes out in an hour (forecasts: headline +0.3%, core +0.2%). Once the data is released, we’ll see whether IBIT stops selling tomorrow.
Invalidation level: If Bitcoin closes below $73,200 (the 200-day moving average) for two consecutive days, and IBIT sees another daily net outflow of more than $200 million, the divergence thesis is invalidated, with $70,000 as the next downside target.
Do you think the wave of IBIT redemptions will pause after CPI, or are seven straight days of outflows just the beginning—and will they keep dragging prices down?
$BTC $ETH
#BitcoinSpotETFsPost$201MNetOutflowForThirdStraightDay #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
