U.S. October CPI is out tonight at 9:30 p.m.: look at core first, then month over month
Evening of November 10, 2026 | BLS schedule: Nov. 10, 08:30 Eastern Time
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release schedule says October CPI is set for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on November 10—that is, 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight. Every month, people say CPI is important, but when the figures come out, four percentages often appear on screen at once. First, let’s distinguish between them.
First pair: headline CPI and core CPI. Headline CPI includes all items; core CPI excludes food and energy, whose prices are volatile—a single change in oil prices can skew the headline figure. To see whether price pressures are becoming “sticky,” many people look at core CPI first.
Second pair: year over year and month over month. Year over year compares prices with the same month last year, like a cumulative measure over a year; month over month compares them with the previous month and reflects the latest direction of change. The year-over-year figure can change “on its own” because of a high or low base from last year, while month-over-month data can reveal a turning point sooner. The BLS month-over-month figures are seasonally adjusted.
There’s another thing people often confuse: the “consensus estimate” commonly cited by markets doesn’t come from the BLS. It’s a compilation of surveys of economists conducted by various organizations, and their methodologies aren’t entirely consistent. Price swings often come from the gap between the actual figure and expectations, not from the number itself.
We won’t forecast the figures tonight or guess where crypto prices will go. Once the BLS release is out, we’ll fill in the four numbers in this table based only on the original release.
Take a guess in the comments: Will core CPI month over month be higher or lower than last month? Just guess the direction.
#CPI #美联储 #宏观 #Explainer
Evening of November 10, 2026 | BLS schedule: Nov. 10, 08:30 Eastern Time
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release schedule says October CPI is set for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on November 10—that is, 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight. Every month, people say CPI is important, but when the figures come out, four percentages often appear on screen at once. First, let’s distinguish between them.
First pair: headline CPI and core CPI. Headline CPI includes all items; core CPI excludes food and energy, whose prices are volatile—a single change in oil prices can skew the headline figure. To see whether price pressures are becoming “sticky,” many people look at core CPI first.
Second pair: year over year and month over month. Year over year compares prices with the same month last year, like a cumulative measure over a year; month over month compares them with the previous month and reflects the latest direction of change. The year-over-year figure can change “on its own” because of a high or low base from last year, while month-over-month data can reveal a turning point sooner. The BLS month-over-month figures are seasonally adjusted.
There’s another thing people often confuse: the “consensus estimate” commonly cited by markets doesn’t come from the BLS. It’s a compilation of surveys of economists conducted by various organizations, and their methodologies aren’t entirely consistent. Price swings often come from the gap between the actual figure and expectations, not from the number itself.
We won’t forecast the figures tonight or guess where crypto prices will go. Once the BLS release is out, we’ll fill in the four numbers in this table based only on the original release.
Take a guess in the comments: Will core CPI month over month be higher or lower than last month? Just guess the direction.
#CPI #美联储 #宏观 #Explainer
