Tonight at 9:30, this could be the most exciting half-hour of the month.

Bitcoin spent the whole day hovering around $74,000—at $74,274, down just 0.4% in 24 hours. It looks calm on the surface, but everyone knows the real action is yet to come. The U.S. October CPI will be released at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight. It’s the last inflation report before the Fed’s December policy meeting. And today, Fed Governor Waller laid his cards on the table in London: no matter what tonight’s CPI shows, he supports a 25-basis-point rate hike in December; if core CPI rises to 0.3% month over month or higher, then a 50-basis-point hike should be considered.

In a word, the market’s reaction today says it all: on CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December jumped straight from 76% to over 96%. A rate hike is basically priced in. The real bet tonight is whether the 50 basis points Waller has been talking about will go from “tough talk” to a genuine “option.”

First, some background. Bitcoin has now fallen for five straight weeks, sliding from a late-September high of $87,400 to around $73,500—a drop of nearly 16%. The Fear & Greed Index is at 28, still in “Fear” territory. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, as institutional money moved to the sidelines. Put simply, the market isn’t short on confidence; it’s short on a reason to believe there won’t be another rate hike—and tonight’s data can’t provide that reason. At most, it can determine whether the hike is 25 or 50 basis points.

Tonight’s CPI report is unusual for another reason: because of the U.S. government shutdown in October 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics didn’t collect that month’s price data, so there won’t be a year-over-year reading for October this year. The market can only focus on the month-over-month figures: headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% (versus 0.6% in September), and core CPI 0.2% (versus 0.3% in September). Goldman Sachs is a little more optimistic, expecting core CPI to come in at just 0.16%; JPMorgan is more cautious, forecasting 0.23%. In other words, tonight’s outcome will likely hinge on whether core CPI lands closer to 0.2% or 0.3%.

Here are three scenarios, with my view upfront:

First, in line with expectations—core CPI around +0.2%. This is the most likely outcome. Waller’s 50-basis-point option gets taken off the table for now, and a 25-basis-point hike in December becomes a certainty. Markets may initially sell off before stabilizing, since an “in-line” reading isn’t positive in itself—and rates are still going up. Bitcoin will most likely continue grinding within the $74,000–$76,000 range, with direction hinging on the wording of the December policy meeting.

Second, a dovish reading—core CPI at +0.1% or even lower, and headline CPI below +0.2%. Expectations for a December hike would then ease, and the market would start trading on the narrative that “there will be no more hikes next year.” Bitcoin could surge past $76,000 and test $78,000. In this kind of move, high-beta altcoins tend to have the most upside, with the hardest-hit ones often bouncing back the strongest.

Third, a hawkish reading—core CPI at +0.3% or higher. That’s the line Waller drew today. If the data hits or exceeds it, discussion of a 50-basis-point hike will immediately shift from “hypothetical” to “priced in.” The dollar and Treasury yields would jump, putting pressure on risk assets across the board. Bitcoin would likely test support around $73,500. Major altcoins like $SOL may also struggle to hold their ground. $ARB is already down 10.4% today, and a hawkish reading on top of that could amplify volatility.

Speaking of $SOL and $ARB, they mean different things tonight. $SOL is at $84.68, down 2.1%, and is broadly tracking the market—making it a gauge of whether “major coins are following along.” $ARB is today’s biggest decliner at $0.162, down more than 10% in a day, putting it among the most sentiment-sensitive assets. On hawkish data, it often falls harder than the broader market; on dovish data, it can rebound the fastest. Volatility is extreme, so approach with caution.

What to watch next: at 9:30 p.m. tonight, first check whether month-over-month core CPI comes in at 0.2% or 0.3%—that figure will directly determine whether Waller’s 50-basis-point option is taken off the table or put on it. Then watch the immediate reaction in the dollar and Treasury yields, which reflect the market’s real vote. CoreWeave reports earnings around 6 a.m. tomorrow, and sentiment in the AI sector could spill over, too. Finally, the December 8–9 policy meeting is coming up; tonight is just the appetizer.

In a word, tonight isn’t about betting on the direction—it’s about seeing “how much.” Volatility will be high in the half hour before and after the data release, so don’t chase rallies or sell off in a panic at that moment. Wait for the market to work out whether it’s 25 or 50, then let price action guide you.