$INIT The two lines from the previous post: this candle lost one and broke below the other, then reclaimed it. It couldn’t hold 0.21623; the current price is 0.20118. It broke through 0.19668 to 0.19154, 2.6% below the line, then climbed back above it by 2.3% within the same hour.
There wasn’t much volume behind the downward push. This four-hour candle saw 15.36 million coins, compared with 22.98 million in the previous candle, down 33%.
The funding rate has turned more negative again, at -1.467% versus -0.985% in the previous post—the most negative reading in this move so far. The price broke below the line, and funding costs shifted further into negative territory, yet the price didn’t accelerate lower.
The 24-hour change is still +64.89%, higher than the +54.5% at the time of the previous post; however, the current price is 7.0% below the previous post’s closing price. That’s because the 24-hour reference point is rolling lower, not because the price has strengthened.
So I’m not reading this candle as confirmation of a breakdown. The line was breached, but volume was 33% lower than in the previous candle, and the 2.3% recovery happened within the same hour. The price is now stuck between 0.19154 and 0.21623, with neither boundary decisively broken: a close above 0.21623 and a sustained hold would confirm the breakout mentioned in the previous post; a fresh break below 0.19154, accompanied by a volume spike at the moment of the breakdown, would mark the next leg down. I’m also keeping the reverse scenario in mind: this candle’s range is 19.4% wide, and the most recent hour moved -7.83%—the entire move could be given back in that same hour.
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There wasn’t much volume behind the downward push. This four-hour candle saw 15.36 million coins, compared with 22.98 million in the previous candle, down 33%.
The funding rate has turned more negative again, at -1.467% versus -0.985% in the previous post—the most negative reading in this move so far. The price broke below the line, and funding costs shifted further into negative territory, yet the price didn’t accelerate lower.
The 24-hour change is still +64.89%, higher than the +54.5% at the time of the previous post; however, the current price is 7.0% below the previous post’s closing price. That’s because the 24-hour reference point is rolling lower, not because the price has strengthened.
So I’m not reading this candle as confirmation of a breakdown. The line was breached, but volume was 33% lower than in the previous candle, and the 2.3% recovery happened within the same hour. The price is now stuck between 0.19154 and 0.21623, with neither boundary decisively broken: a close above 0.21623 and a sustained hold would confirm the breakout mentioned in the previous post; a fresh break below 0.19154, accompanied by a volume spike at the moment of the breakdown, would mark the next leg down. I’m also keeping the reverse scenario in mind: this candle’s range is 19.4% wide, and the most recent hour moved -7.83%—the entire move could be given back in that same hour.
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