Tonight’s biggest variable: U.S. October CPI will be released at 21:30
Event: The U.S. October Consumer Price Index will be released tonight at 21:30 Beijing time. The previous figures were overall CPI up 3.7% year over year and 0.6% month over month, with core CPI up 2.6% year over year; the market’s consensus expects overall CPI to ease to 3.5% to 3.6% year over year and 0.3% month over month, with core CPI up 0.2% month over month.
Which coins are affected: the entire market, especially Bitcoin, Ethereum, and high-beta altcoins.
Reason: CPI directly determines expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. At present, the market’s pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has fallen from 100% to about 70%. A hotter-than-expected reading would reinforce the high-rate narrative and दबress risk assets; a cooler-than-expected reading would benefit the rate-cut trade.
Three scenarios:
A below-expectations bullish scenario: if overall CPI is no higher than 3.4% and core CPI is 0.1% month over month, Bitcoin may break through the short-term resistance at 77200 and test the strong resistance at 79500; Ethereum breaks above 2310 and then looks toward 2400; altcoins rally broadly.
An in-line, range-bound scenario: Bitcoin $BTC oscillates between 75500 and 77200, Ethereum moves sideways between 2200 and 2310, with no trend opportunity.
A stronger-than-expected bearish scenario: if overall CPI reaches 3.8% and core CPI is 0.3% month over month, Bitcoin falls below 75500 and then tests the strong support at 73600; Ethereum$ETH falls below 2200 and looks toward 2120; leveraged positions face cascading liquidations, and altcoins could fall 1.5 to 2 times as much as Bitcoin.
Resistance and support levels: Bitcoin short-term resistance 77200, strong resistance 79500; first support 75500, strong support 73600. Ethereum first resistance 2310, strong resistance 2400; support 2200, strong support 2120.
Future trend: Do not take large positions within 1 hour before the data release. After the release, wait 5 minutes to see the direction of capital flow before acting; false breakouts are very common. The current long/short ratio in contracts is close to balanced, and one-sided moves will be amplified by liquidations.
Coin introduction: Bitcoin is the world’s largest crypto asset and is often seen as digital gold and a barometer of risk sentiment; Ethereum is the main underlying network for smart contracts and stablecoin settlement.
Event: The U.S. October Consumer Price Index will be released tonight at 21:30 Beijing time. The previous figures were overall CPI up 3.7% year over year and 0.6% month over month, with core CPI up 2.6% year over year; the market’s consensus expects overall CPI to ease to 3.5% to 3.6% year over year and 0.3% month over month, with core CPI up 0.2% month over month.
Which coins are affected: the entire market, especially Bitcoin, Ethereum, and high-beta altcoins.
Reason: CPI directly determines expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut. At present, the market’s pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has fallen from 100% to about 70%. A hotter-than-expected reading would reinforce the high-rate narrative and दबress risk assets; a cooler-than-expected reading would benefit the rate-cut trade.
Three scenarios:
A below-expectations bullish scenario: if overall CPI is no higher than 3.4% and core CPI is 0.1% month over month, Bitcoin may break through the short-term resistance at 77200 and test the strong resistance at 79500; Ethereum breaks above 2310 and then looks toward 2400; altcoins rally broadly.
An in-line, range-bound scenario: Bitcoin $BTC oscillates between 75500 and 77200, Ethereum moves sideways between 2200 and 2310, with no trend opportunity.
A stronger-than-expected bearish scenario: if overall CPI reaches 3.8% and core CPI is 0.3% month over month, Bitcoin falls below 75500 and then tests the strong support at 73600; Ethereum$ETH falls below 2200 and looks toward 2120; leveraged positions face cascading liquidations, and altcoins could fall 1.5 to 2 times as much as Bitcoin.
Resistance and support levels: Bitcoin short-term resistance 77200, strong resistance 79500; first support 75500, strong support 73600. Ethereum first resistance 2310, strong resistance 2400; support 2200, strong support 2120.
Future trend: Do not take large positions within 1 hour before the data release. After the release, wait 5 minutes to see the direction of capital flow before acting; false breakouts are very common. The current long/short ratio in contracts is close to balanced, and one-sided moves will be amplified by liquidations.
Coin introduction: Bitcoin is the world’s largest crypto asset and is often seen as digital gold and a barometer of risk sentiment; Ethereum is the main underlying network for smart contracts and stablecoin settlement.