Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall slightly in 2026 due to the expansion of renewable energy and the oil price shock sparked by the Iran war, researchers said Tuesday.

Emissions from the burning of oil, gas and coal — the main drivers of climate change —rose by 0.9 per cent per year on average in the past decade, hitting a record high in 2025, according to the Global Carbon Budget report.

But they are expected to drop by 0.4pc in 2026, according to the research, published as nations meet at the UN’s COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkiye.

It would be the first annual drop since 2020, when the Covid pandemic paralysed the global economy, trade and transport.

This year, the US-led war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz played a role in driving emissions down as it caused a drop in oil consumption amid soaring crude prices, the researchers found.

The deployment of solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles also contributed to the drop. Two thirds of the increase in global energy demand is being met by solar and wind power and electric vehicles, the report found.
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