The stronger the jobs data, the tougher it is for crypto—last Friday, a much hotter-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report pushed the odds of a December rate hike above 80%.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported on November 6 that nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, versus expectations of around 60,000–70,000—nearly three times the forecast. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%; August and September figures were revised up by a combined 84,000; and average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year over year, above the 2.9% expected.
The reaction in interest-rate futures was immediate: before the jobs report, the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting were around 67%. After the release, they briefly surged to about 85%, then settled near 78%. Ahead of tonight’s CPI release, the odds climbed back to around 84%.
$BTC is currently around $74,400, stuck below $75,000; $ETH is around $2,090. Strong jobs → higher rate-hike expectations → pressure on risk assets. That chain is still in effect today.
My take: tonight’s U.S. October CPI at 21:30 is the next test. The consensus is +0.3% month over month, with core CPI at +0.2%. If the data meets expectations, rate-hike odds may stay elevated but move sideways, and BTC may continue grinding around $74,000. If it comes in hotter than expected, the odds could climb further, putting pressure on the 200-day moving average near $73,200. If it comes in cooler than expected, rate-hike expectations may ease, giving BTC a chance to challenge the 50-week moving average at $75,600. Volatility could pick up around the release, so don’t chase the first move—wait for the data to land before reassessing.
Data as of: 2026-11-10 11:45 UTC
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported on November 6 that nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, versus expectations of around 60,000–70,000—nearly three times the forecast. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%; August and September figures were revised up by a combined 84,000; and average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year over year, above the 2.9% expected.
The reaction in interest-rate futures was immediate: before the jobs report, the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8–9 meeting were around 67%. After the release, they briefly surged to about 85%, then settled near 78%. Ahead of tonight’s CPI release, the odds climbed back to around 84%.
$BTC is currently around $74,400, stuck below $75,000; $ETH is around $2,090. Strong jobs → higher rate-hike expectations → pressure on risk assets. That chain is still in effect today.
My take: tonight’s U.S. October CPI at 21:30 is the next test. The consensus is +0.3% month over month, with core CPI at +0.2%. If the data meets expectations, rate-hike odds may stay elevated but move sideways, and BTC may continue grinding around $74,000. If it comes in hotter than expected, the odds could climb further, putting pressure on the 200-day moving average near $73,200. If it comes in cooler than expected, rate-hike expectations may ease, giving BTC a chance to challenge the 50-week moving average at $75,600. Volatility could pick up around the release, so don’t chase the first move—wait for the data to land before reassessing.
Data as of: 2026-11-10 11:45 UTC
For informational purposes only; this is not investment advice.
