Holy crap, Waller came right out today and said a December rate hike is likely, and casually mentioned it could even be 50 bps.
A Fed governor said it himself—and before the CPI report is out.
What’s even crazier is the premarket reaction. Dow futures are still up around 0.3%, S&P futures are slightly higher too, and only Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%. It’s as if everyone’s already accepted it: rate futures put the odds of a 25-bp hike in December at 82% to 84%, up from just 74% a week ago. The 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.58%.
So tonight, what I’ll mainly be watching in the CPI report is whether the market takes that 50-bp possibility seriously. The forecast is 0.3% headline and 0.2% core. If core comes in at 0.3% or even 0.4%, I think the S&P’s biggest one-day rally since April yesterday will probably give back half its gains.
BTC is now just above $74,000, barely moved all day, like it’s waiting for the same number. Honestly, lately it seems more focused on the 2-year yield than anything else—it can’t even be bothered to follow the Nasdaq higher.
9:30 p.m. Beijing time, 8:30 a.m. EST. Less than two hours to go.
#美联储 #CPI #美股 $BTC
A Fed governor said it himself—and before the CPI report is out.
What’s even crazier is the premarket reaction. Dow futures are still up around 0.3%, S&P futures are slightly higher too, and only Nasdaq futures are down 0.2%. It’s as if everyone’s already accepted it: rate futures put the odds of a 25-bp hike in December at 82% to 84%, up from just 74% a week ago. The 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.58%.
So tonight, what I’ll mainly be watching in the CPI report is whether the market takes that 50-bp possibility seriously. The forecast is 0.3% headline and 0.2% core. If core comes in at 0.3% or even 0.4%, I think the S&P’s biggest one-day rally since April yesterday will probably give back half its gains.
BTC is now just above $74,000, barely moved all day, like it’s waiting for the same number. Honestly, lately it seems more focused on the 2-year yield than anything else—it can’t even be bothered to follow the Nasdaq higher.
9:30 p.m. Beijing time, 8:30 a.m. EST. Less than two hours to go.
#美联储 #CPI #美股 $BTC