The data comes out in two hours, and I’ve already written down the order I’ll be watching things tonight: first the core figure, then whether the candlestick chart can hold its ground, and only then I’ll adjust my positions.

A quick rundown of the market first. CoinGecko currently has $BTC at around 74,150, down 0.4% over 24 hours; $ETH at around 2,092, down 1.3%; and $BNB at around 688, slightly in the red. It’s been a slow grind all day, with everyone waiting for 9:30.

There are two details tonight that many people may have missed:

1. There are no year-over-year figures this time. The U.S. government shut down last October, and prices weren’t collected that month, so there’s no comparison baseline. That’s why officials are only releasing the month-over-month figure. If someone in the group chat throws out “how much did it fall year over year,” take it with a grain of salt.

2. Market expectations are 0.3% month over month for headline inflation and 0.2% for core, versus 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively, last month. The expected drop in headline inflation is mainly due to falling oil prices, which everyone saw coming. What will really affect whether rates are raised in December is core inflation. My take: when headline looks good but core doesn’t fall, that combination is most likely to trigger an initial rally followed by a sell-off.

After the release, here’s how I’ll manage the positions I already have:

- I’m not counting the first wick in the first 15 minutes. I’m only watching where the 15-minute candle at 21:45 closes.

- If BTC can’t reclaim 75000, I’ll treat it as if there’s no good news. I’ll take profit on half of any profitable long positions and move the stop loss up to breakeven.

- If it breaks below 73000, a support level many people are watching, I’ll close my leveraged long positions outright—no holding on and no adding to them. I’ll leave my spot holdings untouched.

- If core inflation comes in below expectations and BTC holds above 75000, I’ll still only gradually buy back some of the positions I cut over the past two days. I won’t chase the first big green candle.

The losses I’ve taken on data-release nights over the past few years usually weren’t because I got the direction wrong, but because I rushed in after seeing the first wick, only to get stopped out by the second wick in the opposite direction. So tonight, I’d rather be a little late.

Tonight, are you watching the core figure, or just letting the charts do the talking?

The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk.