$ETH is weaker than BTC. Open interest is falling, while long positions are getting increasingly crowded 😮💨
What happened (Binance futures data, confirmed):
• On 11/9 at 05:00 (UTC+8) / 11/8 at 21:00 UTC, the price plunged to 2,050, with about 2.3 billion U in trading volume that hour. It’s now around 2,098, down from around 2,240 two days ago.
• ETH/BTC slid from a 11/4 close of 0.0301 to 0.0282, down about 6% in a week. Meanwhile, $BTC is up a slight 0.3% today.
• Futures open interest fell over two days from about 2.377 million ETH to 2.275 million ETH (down a little over 4%). Meanwhile, accounts with long positions stayed stuck at 79%–80% all day—roughly four bullish accounts for every bearish one.
My take:
Open interest is falling and the price hasn’t bounced, which suggests some people are pulling out. But the accounts that remain are almost unanimously bullish. In this setup, if ETH drops further, it’ll most likely be the longs who are forced to close.
On the other hand, if ETH/BTC gets back above 0.029 first and the long-account ratio gradually declines, that would look more like a reshuffling of positions—and my take would be wrong.
Unverified: I couldn’t find one definitive news item that directly explains ETH’s weakness over the past two days, so I won’t force an explanation.
Futures involve leverage and carry high risk.
Do you think ETH will catch up with BTC this week, or keep falling behind?
Not investment advice
What happened (Binance futures data, confirmed):
• On 11/9 at 05:00 (UTC+8) / 11/8 at 21:00 UTC, the price plunged to 2,050, with about 2.3 billion U in trading volume that hour. It’s now around 2,098, down from around 2,240 two days ago.
• ETH/BTC slid from a 11/4 close of 0.0301 to 0.0282, down about 6% in a week. Meanwhile, $BTC is up a slight 0.3% today.
• Futures open interest fell over two days from about 2.377 million ETH to 2.275 million ETH (down a little over 4%). Meanwhile, accounts with long positions stayed stuck at 79%–80% all day—roughly four bullish accounts for every bearish one.
My take:
Open interest is falling and the price hasn’t bounced, which suggests some people are pulling out. But the accounts that remain are almost unanimously bullish. In this setup, if ETH drops further, it’ll most likely be the longs who are forced to close.
On the other hand, if ETH/BTC gets back above 0.029 first and the long-account ratio gradually declines, that would look more like a reshuffling of positions—and my take would be wrong.
Unverified: I couldn’t find one definitive news item that directly explains ETH’s weakness over the past two days, so I won’t force an explanation.
Futures involve leverage and carry high risk.
Do you think ETH will catch up with BTC this week, or keep falling behind?
Not investment advice