Tonight’s U.S. CPI: the “year-over-year” column is blank
At 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight, the U.S. October CPI will be released as usual, but it will be missing the most eye-catching figures: the year-over-year increases for headline and core CPI are unusually absent, leaving only the month-over-month figures.
This isn’t a statistical error, and it doesn’t mean inflation has disappeared. It’s because “the mirror from last year” is broken. Year-over-year figures compare this October with last October;
but last October, the U.S. federal government shut down for 43 days. Price collectors from the Bureau of Labor Statistics weren’t on the job, and the in-person price data couldn’t be collected retroactively. The October CPI release was canceled outright, and that cell in the database is still just a dash.
The formula makes it clear: year-over-year change = (October 2026 − October 2025) ÷ October 2025 × 100%. That “October 2025” figure simply doesn’t exist. There’s no comparison for the numerator and no value for the denominator, so even the best model can’t calculate an official figure.
So tonight, don’t keep waiting for “3.7% or 4%.” Watch the month-over-month figures: the market expects headline CPI to rise by 0.3% (after 0.6% in September) and core CPI by 0.2% (after 0.3% in September).
Year-over-year figures estimated by institutions using interpolation (about 3.8% / 2.7%) should be treated only as a reference, not as official figures.
The data isn’t missing; it’s just missing the yardstick for “compared with last year.” Tonight, the yardstick is the month-over-month change. Next month, the old yardstick will be back.#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
At 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight, the U.S. October CPI will be released as usual, but it will be missing the most eye-catching figures: the year-over-year increases for headline and core CPI are unusually absent, leaving only the month-over-month figures.
This isn’t a statistical error, and it doesn’t mean inflation has disappeared. It’s because “the mirror from last year” is broken. Year-over-year figures compare this October with last October;
but last October, the U.S. federal government shut down for 43 days. Price collectors from the Bureau of Labor Statistics weren’t on the job, and the in-person price data couldn’t be collected retroactively. The October CPI release was canceled outright, and that cell in the database is still just a dash.
The formula makes it clear: year-over-year change = (October 2026 − October 2025) ÷ October 2025 × 100%. That “October 2025” figure simply doesn’t exist. There’s no comparison for the numerator and no value for the denominator, so even the best model can’t calculate an official figure.
So tonight, don’t keep waiting for “3.7% or 4%.” Watch the month-over-month figures: the market expects headline CPI to rise by 0.3% (after 0.6% in September) and core CPI by 0.2% (after 0.3% in September).
Year-over-year figures estimated by institutions using interpolation (about 3.8% / 2.7%) should be treated only as a reference, not as official figures.
The data isn’t missing; it’s just missing the yardstick for “compared with last year.” Tonight, the yardstick is the month-over-month change. Next month, the old yardstick will be back.#CPI前瞻，12月利率走向迎关键考验
