Burry shorted Caterpillar this time, made about 4x, then sold 75%.
What he meant in his own words was that the remaining quarter of the position was worth roughly what he’d put in when he first opened it at the end of Q2. He’s pocketed his principal plus profits, and is using the market’s money to keep playing with what’s left.
First, let’s look at how far CAT has fallen. It’s down about 47% from its June high, and fell 10% last week—the worst week in 18 months. Its forward P/E has plunged from nearly 39x at the start of the year to around 19x. A company that sells excavators and generators had been valued as a growth stock because it was seen as an AI data center play. That premium has now been almost entirely wiped out.
I think his decision to cut his position is more worth watching than the short itself.
The hardest thing for a short seller is knowing when to call it quits. Those who make 4x and keep holding on often end up giving it all back. He said the day before that he planned to keep holding, then cut three-quarters of the position the next day. That kind of sudden change actually feels pretty real.
But don’t get the wrong idea: he hasn’t turned bullish. He reduced his semiconductor ETF puts by only 25%, and he still has puts on Palantir, Oracle, and QQQ. He’s still short the AI capex trade.
BTC is tied to the same rope here. Over the past few weeks, as the AI complex sold off, the Nasdaq kept falling, and BTC dropped from above 80,000 to 74,800. ETFs were still seeing outflows last week. If we’re really going to wait for BTC to make an independent move, we’ll probably first have to see when the AI trade catches its breath.
#美股 #AI #Burry #BTC
$CAT $BTC
What he meant in his own words was that the remaining quarter of the position was worth roughly what he’d put in when he first opened it at the end of Q2. He’s pocketed his principal plus profits, and is using the market’s money to keep playing with what’s left.
First, let’s look at how far CAT has fallen. It’s down about 47% from its June high, and fell 10% last week—the worst week in 18 months. Its forward P/E has plunged from nearly 39x at the start of the year to around 19x. A company that sells excavators and generators had been valued as a growth stock because it was seen as an AI data center play. That premium has now been almost entirely wiped out.
I think his decision to cut his position is more worth watching than the short itself.
The hardest thing for a short seller is knowing when to call it quits. Those who make 4x and keep holding on often end up giving it all back. He said the day before that he planned to keep holding, then cut three-quarters of the position the next day. That kind of sudden change actually feels pretty real.
But don’t get the wrong idea: he hasn’t turned bullish. He reduced his semiconductor ETF puts by only 25%, and he still has puts on Palantir, Oracle, and QQQ. He’s still short the AI capex trade.
BTC is tied to the same rope here. Over the past few weeks, as the AI complex sold off, the Nasdaq kept falling, and BTC dropped from above 80,000 to 74,800. ETFs were still seeing outflows last week. If we’re really going to wait for BTC to make an independent move, we’ll probably first have to see when the AI trade catches its breath.
#美股 #AI #Burry #BTC
$CAT $BTC