#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook CPI today: the final test before the Fed decides in December 📊
Today at 5:30 am (Pacific time), October’s CPI is released, and the market is watching closely. This isn’t just any data point: it’s the last major inflation figure before the December meeting.
Consensus expects a softer reading than September (around +0.3% month over month for headline and +0.2% for core). But keep in mind: due to last year’s data issues, the official year-over-year figures won’t be released. The market will react mainly to the month-over-month change.
After October’s strong jobs report, the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December are high (around 70–80%).
• If CPI comes in hotter than expected → the case for a hike gets stronger, the dollar and yields rise, and risk assets (including Bitcoin) usually come under pressure.
• If it comes in cooler → those odds could fall a little, giving the market some breathing room before the FOMC.
My personal take:
An “in-line” or slightly soft reading won’t necessarily rule out a December hike, because the jobs report has already given the more hawkish policymakers an argument. But it could change the tone of what the Fed says in December and how the market reacts afterward.
That’s why today I’d rather watch the initial reaction and avoid forcing trades amid the early noise. Discipline is still more important than guessing the number.
What are you expecting: hotter or cooler CPI?
Do you think the Fed will definitely hike in December?
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #CPI #Fed #Bitcoin #BTC #BinanceSquare #CryptoCounter #CryptoTrading #Inflation #Markets
Today at 5:30 am (Pacific time), October’s CPI is released, and the market is watching closely. This isn’t just any data point: it’s the last major inflation figure before the December meeting.
Consensus expects a softer reading than September (around +0.3% month over month for headline and +0.2% for core). But keep in mind: due to last year’s data issues, the official year-over-year figures won’t be released. The market will react mainly to the month-over-month change.
After October’s strong jobs report, the odds of a 25-basis-point hike in December are high (around 70–80%).
• If CPI comes in hotter than expected → the case for a hike gets stronger, the dollar and yields rise, and risk assets (including Bitcoin) usually come under pressure.
• If it comes in cooler → those odds could fall a little, giving the market some breathing room before the FOMC.
My personal take:
An “in-line” or slightly soft reading won’t necessarily rule out a December hike, because the jobs report has already given the more hawkish policymakers an argument. But it could change the tone of what the Fed says in December and how the market reacts afterward.
That’s why today I’d rather watch the initial reaction and avoid forcing trades amid the early noise. Discipline is still more important than guessing the number.
What are you expecting: hotter or cooler CPI?
Do you think the Fed will definitely hike in December?
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #CPI #Fed #Bitcoin #BTC #BinanceSquare #CryptoCounter #CryptoTrading #Inflation #Markets