SOL upgrade is live | ETF funds still flowing out | Wait for confirmation around 85.2
My stance is cautious and wait-and-see. Solana’s technical progress is worth tracking, but that is a separate question from whether to buy SOL today. The Solana Foundation’s November 6 ecosystem report confirmed that the mainnet upgrade to reduce the target block time to 200 milliseconds was completed on October 9, and that Alpenglow consensus was activated on October 21, with a target finality time of around 150 milliseconds. The official upgrade notes also confirm that Alpenglow is running on mainnet. “Target” here refers to a protocol design metric; it does not mean every transaction will always complete in 150 milliseconds, much less that it can be directly translated into a price increase.
Faster on-chain settlement could theoretically benefit payments, stablecoin transfers, and institutional settlement applications: counterparties have to wait less time for final confirmation, potentially reducing the capital tied up in market-making and clearing. But whether demand actually turns into sustained buying of SOL depends on application usage, fees, the scale of institutional products, and fund flows—not just betting on upgrade news. Solana’s status page currently shows the mainnet and RPC as operational, with no incident report today. This supports the view that “the network is available,” but is still not evidence that “funds are flowing in.”
The picture from fund flows is less encouraging. In Farside’s SOL ETF table, the listed funds showed combined net outflows of about $7.7 million on November 9 and about $24.2 million on November 6. The TSOL column for the 9th still shows a dash, so this is only the total currently visible in the table and should not be presented as final, market-wide settlement data. It suggests that institutional products have not been voting in favor of the upgrade narrative lately, though the figures may be revised as data is updated. Two days of outflows do not prove that long-term adoption has failed, but they are enough to make me skeptical that “positive technical news must immediately trigger a rebound.”
As for the market reaction, when I checked the 24-hour SOLUSDT market on Binance, the price was around $85.38, down about 2.11% over 24 hours, with a high of $88.07 and a low of $85.22. Fund flows and price are both pointing weakly in the same direction, but a single day’s decline cannot be attributed to ETFs alone; macro risk appetite and the broader crypto market also have an impact. Around $85.2 is the immediate low, while around $88.1 is the level to watch above. If the price breaks below $85.2 and cannot quickly reclaim it, that would indicate insufficient short-term buying pressure. My cautious view would only be overturned if the price regains and holds above $88.1, and ETF flows and spot volume subsequently improve.
If I were trading this myself, I would stay out and would not chase a short. I would only consider a small spot long after confirmation. The conditions: the price must first break decisively above $88.1, then retest and hold that level without a significant drop in volume. The initial position would be no more than 2% of total capital, with no leverage. First target: $90, where I would sell half; I would target $92 for the remaining position and continue taking profits in stages. If the price falls back to $86.8 after entry, I would exit at a loss. I would also close the position early if ETF outflows continue to grow, the mainnet experiences an abnormality, or the price falls back below $85.2. If the conditions are never met, I would stay in cash rather than pretend that waiting is a trade.
Sources: Solana Foundation’s November 6 ecosystem report and official Alpenglow notes, Solana status page, Farside SOL ETF table, and live Binance SOLUSDT market data. #SOL
This is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is cautious and wait-and-see. Solana’s technical progress is worth tracking, but that is a separate question from whether to buy SOL today. The Solana Foundation’s November 6 ecosystem report confirmed that the mainnet upgrade to reduce the target block time to 200 milliseconds was completed on October 9, and that Alpenglow consensus was activated on October 21, with a target finality time of around 150 milliseconds. The official upgrade notes also confirm that Alpenglow is running on mainnet. “Target” here refers to a protocol design metric; it does not mean every transaction will always complete in 150 milliseconds, much less that it can be directly translated into a price increase.
Faster on-chain settlement could theoretically benefit payments, stablecoin transfers, and institutional settlement applications: counterparties have to wait less time for final confirmation, potentially reducing the capital tied up in market-making and clearing. But whether demand actually turns into sustained buying of SOL depends on application usage, fees, the scale of institutional products, and fund flows—not just betting on upgrade news. Solana’s status page currently shows the mainnet and RPC as operational, with no incident report today. This supports the view that “the network is available,” but is still not evidence that “funds are flowing in.”
The picture from fund flows is less encouraging. In Farside’s SOL ETF table, the listed funds showed combined net outflows of about $7.7 million on November 9 and about $24.2 million on November 6. The TSOL column for the 9th still shows a dash, so this is only the total currently visible in the table and should not be presented as final, market-wide settlement data. It suggests that institutional products have not been voting in favor of the upgrade narrative lately, though the figures may be revised as data is updated. Two days of outflows do not prove that long-term adoption has failed, but they are enough to make me skeptical that “positive technical news must immediately trigger a rebound.”
As for the market reaction, when I checked the 24-hour SOLUSDT market on Binance, the price was around $85.38, down about 2.11% over 24 hours, with a high of $88.07 and a low of $85.22. Fund flows and price are both pointing weakly in the same direction, but a single day’s decline cannot be attributed to ETFs alone; macro risk appetite and the broader crypto market also have an impact. Around $85.2 is the immediate low, while around $88.1 is the level to watch above. If the price breaks below $85.2 and cannot quickly reclaim it, that would indicate insufficient short-term buying pressure. My cautious view would only be overturned if the price regains and holds above $88.1, and ETF flows and spot volume subsequently improve.
If I were trading this myself, I would stay out and would not chase a short. I would only consider a small spot long after confirmation. The conditions: the price must first break decisively above $88.1, then retest and hold that level without a significant drop in volume. The initial position would be no more than 2% of total capital, with no leverage. First target: $90, where I would sell half; I would target $92 for the remaining position and continue taking profits in stages. If the price falls back to $86.8 after entry, I would exit at a loss. I would also close the position early if ETF outflows continue to grow, the mainnet experiences an abnormality, or the price falls back below $85.2. If the conditions are never met, I would stay in cash rather than pretend that waiting is a trade.
Sources: Solana Foundation’s November 6 ecosystem report and official Alpenglow notes, Solana status page, Farside SOL ETF table, and live Binance SOLUSDT market data. #SOL
This is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
