There are a little over five hours to go until tonight’s CPI, and BTC options are getting cheaper instead.
The 30-day implied volatility index for BTC was still at 41.2 on Monday morning, but by around noon Beijing time today it had dropped to about 39.4. Looking at the past five years, that’s pretty low.
Put simply, people don’t think anything major will happen tonight, so they can’t be bothered to pay for insurance.
But there’s something a little odd about this CPI report. October’s data only includes month-over-month figures, with no official year-over-year figure, because prices for October last year simply weren’t collected. The forecast is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core. The market is now arguing over whether there’ll be a rate hike in December. Seeing vol fall at a time like this makes me uneasy.
Looking at the batch expiring Friday, 11/13, there are roughly 32,900 BTC in open interest in the options market. The 74,000 puts are down to around 2,160 contracts, from 4,192 on Sunday—about half. Above that, 8,300 calls are stacked at 81,000, with another 5,270 at 84,000.
Downside protection is being pulled, while the upside lottery tickets are still there.
The spot price is around 74,800, and the range from that plunge on Sunday night was 73,400 to 75,500. Some people are watching the 73,400 level; if the daily candle really closes below it, then the weekend bottom doesn’t count.
CPI is at 21:30 Beijing time, 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
#BTC #CPI #Options
$BTC
The 30-day implied volatility index for BTC was still at 41.2 on Monday morning, but by around noon Beijing time today it had dropped to about 39.4. Looking at the past five years, that’s pretty low.
Put simply, people don’t think anything major will happen tonight, so they can’t be bothered to pay for insurance.
But there’s something a little odd about this CPI report. October’s data only includes month-over-month figures, with no official year-over-year figure, because prices for October last year simply weren’t collected. The forecast is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core. The market is now arguing over whether there’ll be a rate hike in December. Seeing vol fall at a time like this makes me uneasy.
Looking at the batch expiring Friday, 11/13, there are roughly 32,900 BTC in open interest in the options market. The 74,000 puts are down to around 2,160 contracts, from 4,192 on Sunday—about half. Above that, 8,300 calls are stacked at 81,000, with another 5,270 at 84,000.
Downside protection is being pulled, while the upside lottery tickets are still there.
The spot price is around 74,800, and the range from that plunge on Sunday night was 73,400 to 75,500. Some people are watching the 73,400 level; if the daily candle really closes below it, then the weekend bottom doesn’t count.
CPI is at 21:30 Beijing time, 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
#BTC #CPI #Options
$BTC