$SOXL Bears on the gainers leaderboard: Last night's move looks more like short covering. Chasing shorts now isn't worth it—wait for a signal when U.S. stocks open.
The 3x leveraged semiconductor long ETF perpetual rose about 31% over 24h, with roughly 4.7 billion U in volume—the highest on the leaderboard. The backdrop on X: after plunging about 38% on Nov. 5, the S&P 500 rebounded 2.35% and the Nasdaq 2.74% on Monday, while Taiwanese chip stocks surged in tandem.
Looking at the order book, about 1.27 billion U in volume over two hours between 22:00 and 23:00 last night pushed the price from around 47.7 to 56. But from before the rally to now, open interest fell from about 8 million contracts to roughly 6.28 million. Positions were being closed as the price rose, suggesting substantial short covering. After touching a 24h high of 57.83 at 08:00 this morning, it moved between 53.2 and 56.9 during the Asian session and is now around 56.1. About 74% of accounts are long, and large traders' positions are roughly 80% net long. The funding rate fell from around 0.039% to 0.002%.
Longs are crowded, but new leverage hasn't followed. A bearish signal would be a break below today's low of 53.2 after the U.S. market opens tonight, with open interest failing to recover. If, after the CPI release, volume picks up and the price holds above 57.83–58 with open interest rising in tandem, the bearish thesis is invalidated—don't stubbornly hold on. The 3x ETF itself also suffers significant volatility decay, so keep positions small.
CPI comes out tonight. Do you think this is a reversal or just a rebound?
#SOXL空头回补 #Crowded long accounts
The 3x leveraged semiconductor long ETF perpetual rose about 31% over 24h, with roughly 4.7 billion U in volume—the highest on the leaderboard. The backdrop on X: after plunging about 38% on Nov. 5, the S&P 500 rebounded 2.35% and the Nasdaq 2.74% on Monday, while Taiwanese chip stocks surged in tandem.
Looking at the order book, about 1.27 billion U in volume over two hours between 22:00 and 23:00 last night pushed the price from around 47.7 to 56. But from before the rally to now, open interest fell from about 8 million contracts to roughly 6.28 million. Positions were being closed as the price rose, suggesting substantial short covering. After touching a 24h high of 57.83 at 08:00 this morning, it moved between 53.2 and 56.9 during the Asian session and is now around 56.1. About 74% of accounts are long, and large traders' positions are roughly 80% net long. The funding rate fell from around 0.039% to 0.002%.
Longs are crowded, but new leverage hasn't followed. A bearish signal would be a break below today's low of 53.2 after the U.S. market opens tonight, with open interest failing to recover. If, after the CPI release, volume picks up and the price holds above 57.83–58 with open interest rising in tandem, the bearish thesis is invalidated—don't stubbornly hold on. The 3x ETF itself also suffers significant volatility decay, so keep positions small.
CPI comes out tonight. Do you think this is a reversal or just a rebound?
#SOXL空头回补 #Crowded long accounts
