The S&P 500 rose 2.34% and the Nasdaq gained 2.74%, marking the biggest one-day gain in U.S. stocks since April. Bitcoin, meanwhile, rose just 0.69% that same day—less than a third of the stock market’s gain. Ethereum was up 0.36%, now hovering around $74,800 and unable to break above $75,000.
Oil prices fell 5.8%, easing inflationary pressure, and money in U.S. stocks had already placed its bets. Crypto investors are still waiting: Bitcoin ETFs saw another $201 million in net outflows yesterday, including $213 million from BlackRock alone.
My take: Bitcoin hasn’t weakened; investors are waiting for tonight’s 21:30 October CPI release to set the direction. The market expects headline inflation to rise 0.3% and core inflation 0.2%. Once the data is out, the divergence should quickly narrow: either Bitcoin catches up with U.S. stocks, or it drops below $72,500, confirming that money is still flowing out.
Invalidation levels: If Bitcoin closes below $72,500 for two consecutive days, the “waiting for CPI” thesis is invalidated. If it closes above $77,700 for two consecutive days, a catch-up rally is confirmed.
Which side are you on? A: Bitcoin catches up after CPI. B: The divergence turns into a sharper drop.
$BTC $ETH
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
Oil prices fell 5.8%, easing inflationary pressure, and money in U.S. stocks had already placed its bets. Crypto investors are still waiting: Bitcoin ETFs saw another $201 million in net outflows yesterday, including $213 million from BlackRock alone.
My take: Bitcoin hasn’t weakened; investors are waiting for tonight’s 21:30 October CPI release to set the direction. The market expects headline inflation to rise 0.3% and core inflation 0.2%. Once the data is out, the divergence should quickly narrow: either Bitcoin catches up with U.S. stocks, or it drops below $72,500, confirming that money is still flowing out.
Invalidation levels: If Bitcoin closes below $72,500 for two consecutive days, the “waiting for CPI” thesis is invalidated. If it closes above $77,700 for two consecutive days, a catch-up rally is confirmed.
Which side are you on? A: Bitcoin catches up after CPI. B: The divergence turns into a sharper drop.
$BTC $ETH
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
