On November 10, Bitcoin seesawed around $75,000, briefly dipping to $73,667 intraday. $74,400 is the first short-term support level to be tested repeatedly.
A report by Santiment on October 26 pointed to an earlier signal: the number of Bitcoin non-empty wallets has fallen by about 30,000 since October 16, bringing the total down to 59.95 million. The report suggested that, after a prolonged period of stagnation, discouraged small holders may be exiting.
Thirty thousand wallets exiting is a signal of sentiment. But for a sentiment signal to become a bottom signal, buyers need to show up first.
Who’s leaving, and who’s staying
What’s declining is the number of on-chain addresses with a balance, not the number of “people.” One person can control multiple addresses, and an address may simply be a temporary stop for a particular strategy. So this drop of 30,000 cannot be read as “30,000 retail investors leaving the market.”
But the direction is clear. In early October, Santiment observed the opposite trend: addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC were still increasing despite weak prices, and retail buying was interpreted at the time as “an obstacle to a delayed recovery.” By late October, these addresses began declining on a net basis. The sentiment shifted from “small retail investors are buying” to “small retail investors are leaving.”
But institutions aren’t stepping in either.
If retail investors are leaving while another group is buying, “retail capitulation” could be interpreted as a transfer of coins from weak hands to strong hands. The problem is that current data doesn’t support this narrative.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.282 billion in the week from November 2 to 6, their largest weekly outflow since June. IBIT alone saw outflows of about $1.21 billion, accounting for 98% of the total. Cumulative flows for 2026 have turned negative, at about $914 million in net outflows. Of the five trading days, only November 4 recorded net inflows, at about $74.6 million; the other four days all saw outflows.
Retail investors are reducing their wallets, while institutions are redeeming ETF shares. Both trends point in the same direction: marginal selling pressure is coming from multiple groups, not just one camp.
“Retail capitulation, smart money accumulation” is a complete bottom narrative. But the second half requires evidence of buyers. The ETF data doesn’t provide that evidence.
$74,000 to $75,000: a repeatedly tested range
Price action itself hasn’t confirmed anything either. Bitcoin seesawed around $75,000 on November 10, with an intraday low of $73,667. If the weekly close is below $74,400, $72,550 is the next support level; if that level also fails, the $69,000 area (near the 200-week moving average) will come into view.
The technical indicators point to “no clear direction,” not “a bottom is in.” The RSI is at 47.8, slightly below neutral; the ADX is 21.9, below the 25 trend threshold. Short-term holders are already in the red: the STH-SOPR is 0.99, below the breakeven level of 1. About $707 billion worth of Bitcoin is held at a loss, nearly twice the value of holdings in profit.
These data show that the fear is real. But they don’t show that the fear is over.
What to watch next
Whether the weekly close holds above $74,400: this is the first hurdle in testing whether the combination of “retail investors are leaving, but the price hasn’t collapsed” holds up. A close below that level would put $72,550 and then $69,000 into view.
Whether ETF outflows narrow: $1.282 billion in a single week was the largest weekly outflow since June. Only if outflows shrink significantly the following week, or even turn positive on a single day, can we start talking about “seller exhaustion.”
Whether the number of non-empty wallets continues to decline, and whether the price finds a floor: if wallets keep shrinking while the price holds between $74,000 and $75,000, Santiment’s bullish interpretation will have data to support it. If wallets decline as the price breaks down, that’s just another footnote in the next leg down.
Retail capitulation is a real behavior. But it is not a definitive bottom signal. Without evidence of buyers, it’s just a word describing fear.
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