$Niu Lai: The leverage rebuild in the morning session did not lead to a breakout; instead, the price fell and positions exited, releasing compressed volatility to the downside.
As of 14:04, spot was 0.05553, down 2.70% over 24 hours. Open interest was still up 1.10% over 24 hours, but had turned down 0.52% over the past 3 hours. The verifiable facts are that the full 1-hour candle closed at a low of 0.05519, and the morning conditions at 0.05700 and 0.05610 were both triggered. The market inference is that some longs among the newly opened morning positions were stopped out, and selling pressure following the failed push to 0.06041 has not yet subsided.
There was no formal entry plan beforehand, so no entry was made. 0.05500 has not yet been decisively breached by a full 1-hour candle. If it holds, the price needs to reclaim the 1-hour EMA20 at around 0.05659 to signal a bottom, with 0.05780 next in focus. If a full 1-hour candle breaks below 0.05500, watch 0.05350 and 0.05200.
The account long/short ratio is around 1.30 and cannot be considered support on its own; data on position concentration and full unlocks remain insufficient.
#牛来 #行情复盘 #Risk Management
As of 14:04, spot was 0.05553, down 2.70% over 24 hours. Open interest was still up 1.10% over 24 hours, but had turned down 0.52% over the past 3 hours. The verifiable facts are that the full 1-hour candle closed at a low of 0.05519, and the morning conditions at 0.05700 and 0.05610 were both triggered. The market inference is that some longs among the newly opened morning positions were stopped out, and selling pressure following the failed push to 0.06041 has not yet subsided.
There was no formal entry plan beforehand, so no entry was made. 0.05500 has not yet been decisively breached by a full 1-hour candle. If it holds, the price needs to reclaim the 1-hour EMA20 at around 0.05659 to signal a bottom, with 0.05780 next in focus. If a full 1-hour candle breaks below 0.05500, watch 0.05350 and 0.05200.
The account long/short ratio is around 1.30 and cannot be considered support on its own; data on position concentration and full unlocks remain insufficient.
#牛来 #行情复盘 #Risk Management