Inflation is expected to cool to 0.3% and a Fed hike is still 80% priced!
October CPI prints Nov 10 at 13:30 UTC. Economists expect +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, down from +0.6% and +0.3% in September. The Fed held rates on Oct 28 with two members voting for a hike, and CME FedWatch puts a quarter-point hike on Dec 8-9 above 80%.
Four things you should know before taking any action:
- A steady 0.3% a month adds up to about 3.7% a year. The Fed wants 2%.
- Markets trade the surprise, not the number. A hike this likely is already in prices, and BofA's Stephen Juneau says only a very soft 0.1% month would likely stop it.
- There is no official annual rate this time. October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown, so any annual figure you see is an estimate (BofA says 3.8% headline, Unicredit 4.0%).
- One print is one month. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says AI data center spending increasingly looks like old-fashioned demand overheating, and that is a trend, not a blip.
Experience, not financial advice.
#cpitestsdecemberrateoutlook
October CPI prints Nov 10 at 13:30 UTC. Economists expect +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, down from +0.6% and +0.3% in September. The Fed held rates on Oct 28 with two members voting for a hike, and CME FedWatch puts a quarter-point hike on Dec 8-9 above 80%.
Four things you should know before taking any action:
- A steady 0.3% a month adds up to about 3.7% a year. The Fed wants 2%.
- Markets trade the surprise, not the number. A hike this likely is already in prices, and BofA's Stephen Juneau says only a very soft 0.1% month would likely stop it.
- There is no official annual rate this time. October 2025 prices were never collected during the shutdown, so any annual figure you see is an estimate (BofA says 3.8% headline, Unicredit 4.0%).
- One print is one month. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says AI data center spending increasingly looks like old-fashioned demand overheating, and that is a trend, not a blip.
Experience, not financial advice.
#cpitestsdecemberrateoutlook
