U.S. CPI TONIGHT: NO YOY FIGURE—WHAT WILL THE MARKET FOCUS ON?
At 20:30 on 10/11, the U.S. will release October CPI.
Due to disruptions to data collection in October 2025, this report will not include a YoY figure.
Market consensus:
- Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM.
- Core CPI: +0.2% MoM.
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in roughly an 80% chance that the Fed will raise rates by another 25 bps on 09/12.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, rising yields could put pressure on BTC and risk assets.
If CPI comes in cooler than expected, the market could rebound.
Tonight, don't focus on CPI alone. Keep an eye on 10Y yields and BTC's reaction, too.
Do you think CPI will come in hotter or cooler than expected?
At 20:30 on 10/11, the U.S. will release October CPI.
Due to disruptions to data collection in October 2025, this report will not include a YoY figure.
Market consensus:
- Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM.
- Core CPI: +0.2% MoM.
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in roughly an 80% chance that the Fed will raise rates by another 25 bps on 09/12.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, rising yields could put pressure on BTC and risk assets.
If CPI comes in cooler than expected, the market could rebound.
Tonight, don't focus on CPI alone. Keep an eye on 10Y yields and BTC's reaction, too.
Do you think CPI will come in hotter or cooler than expected?
