BTC closed below its 50-week moving average, and whales have turned bearish too. I’m sitting this one out.
What I’m seeing:
BTC closed last week at around $74,968, breaking below its 50-week moving average at around $75,200–$75,500. That ended a seven-week streak above the average, marking the first weekly close below it in about two months.
Glassnode data: Hyperliquid whales flipped from net long to net short about two weeks ago, ending a seven-month net-long streak. Their short exposure is at its highest level since October 2025.
U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, the largest amount since late June. IBIT alone accounted for $1.21 billion, and its year-to-date flows have turned negative by around $914 million.
My take: Technicals, derivatives, and ETF flows are all weakening at the same time. This isn’t just a one-day fluctuation, and the risk-reward for buying the dip is very poor right now.
What I’m doing: Watching, but not chasing or buying the dip. If BTC gets back above $75,500, then we can talk about this being a false breakdown. If it breaks below the 200-day moving average at $73,153, the weakness isn’t over.
Do you think this is a false breakdown designed to trap bears, or the start of another leg down?
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #BTC
What I’m seeing:
BTC closed last week at around $74,968, breaking below its 50-week moving average at around $75,200–$75,500. That ended a seven-week streak above the average, marking the first weekly close below it in about two months.
Glassnode data: Hyperliquid whales flipped from net long to net short about two weeks ago, ending a seven-month net-long streak. Their short exposure is at its highest level since October 2025.
U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows last week, the largest amount since late June. IBIT alone accounted for $1.21 billion, and its year-to-date flows have turned negative by around $914 million.
My take: Technicals, derivatives, and ETF flows are all weakening at the same time. This isn’t just a one-day fluctuation, and the risk-reward for buying the dip is very poor right now.
What I’m doing: Watching, but not chasing or buying the dip. If BTC gets back above $75,500, then we can talk about this being a false breakdown. If it breaks below the 200-day moving average at $73,153, the weakness isn’t over.
Do you think this is a false breakdown designed to trap bears, or the start of another leg down?
$BTC $ETH
#Bitcoin #BTC
