BTC is currently around 75,100. After plunging from 81,200 and breaking below the weekly-chart 50-day moving average at 75,500, it bottomed at 73,500 and is now moving sideways, barely below the average.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 29, in the fear zone.
1. Volume strength: Forming a base; bears are running out of steam.
The price was driven down to 73,500–73,750 twice, and both times it closed with a long lower wick, showing buyers stepping in below. But it also couldn’t push above 75,500 on the rebound. The bulls have held their ground, and the bears can’t drive it lower.
2. On-chain data: ETF outflows are concentrated at BlackRock; whales are buying, but not in large enough amounts.
ETFs saw 1.28 billion in outflows for the week. BlackRock alone accounted for 1.209 billion, or 94% of the total, while Fidelity actually saw inflows of 93 million.
This is one major client making concentrated redemptions, not the entire industry rushing for the exits. Mr.1000 bought 5,000 coins, and an old whale bought 3,009. Together, that’s fewer than 8,000 coins—not enough to absorb 1.28 billion in outflows.
3. Market structure: 73,500 is the first genuinely solid support level.
At the 1.618 Fibonacci level, the price bottomed at 73,510, touched the level precisely, then bounced back as buyers stepped in—forming the outline of a double bottom between 73,500 and 73,750.
Above, 75,500 is the weekly-chart 50-day moving average, and price is repeatedly testing it. If 73,500 breaks, the next level to watch is 71,100, followed by 68,000, the 200-week moving average and a deep-value zone for the long term.
4. Macro: Headwinds remain; keep an eye on three indicators.
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.95%, the dollar is at 101, and a December rate hike is all but certain. AI-related problems remain unresolved, Democrats are restricting data centers, and tech and chip stocks are tumbling—spilling over into Bitcoin.
Wednesday’s CPI report is the most important. Last week, core CPI came in hotter than expected and Bitcoin immediately crashed. This Wednesday will probably follow the same pattern.
The Fear & Greed Index is at 29, in the fear zone.
1. Volume strength: Forming a base; bears are running out of steam.
The price was driven down to 73,500–73,750 twice, and both times it closed with a long lower wick, showing buyers stepping in below. But it also couldn’t push above 75,500 on the rebound. The bulls have held their ground, and the bears can’t drive it lower.
2. On-chain data: ETF outflows are concentrated at BlackRock; whales are buying, but not in large enough amounts.
ETFs saw 1.28 billion in outflows for the week. BlackRock alone accounted for 1.209 billion, or 94% of the total, while Fidelity actually saw inflows of 93 million.
This is one major client making concentrated redemptions, not the entire industry rushing for the exits. Mr.1000 bought 5,000 coins, and an old whale bought 3,009. Together, that’s fewer than 8,000 coins—not enough to absorb 1.28 billion in outflows.
3. Market structure: 73,500 is the first genuinely solid support level.
At the 1.618 Fibonacci level, the price bottomed at 73,510, touched the level precisely, then bounced back as buyers stepped in—forming the outline of a double bottom between 73,500 and 73,750.
Above, 75,500 is the weekly-chart 50-day moving average, and price is repeatedly testing it. If 73,500 breaks, the next level to watch is 71,100, followed by 68,000, the 200-week moving average and a deep-value zone for the long term.
4. Macro: Headwinds remain; keep an eye on three indicators.
The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.95%, the dollar is at 101, and a December rate hike is all but certain. AI-related problems remain unresolved, Democrats are restricting data centers, and tech and chip stocks are tumbling—spilling over into Bitcoin.
Wednesday’s CPI report is the most important. Last week, core CPI came in hotter than expected and Bitcoin immediately crashed. This Wednesday will probably follow the same pattern.