11.10 Chen Jie Morning Analysis
The pullback in oil prices has eased inflation concerns. The market expects US October CPI growth to slow tonight. Combined with the central bank’s 24th consecutive month of gold purchases providing support, this helped drive an overnight surge to 4148, a new high. Although prices fell back to 4124 amid expectations of a December rate hike, gains in US stocks, and profit-taking at the institutional target of 4150, safe-haven support remains from today’s US-Russia-Ukraine meeting in Abu Dhabi, the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, and remarks by Fed officials.
The daily chart is holding firmly above the middle band (4063). On the 12-hour chart, the MACD fast line has crossed above the zero line, with the swing trend pointing toward the upper band at 4185. The 4-hour middle band (4096) and 1-hour middle band (4116) continue to rise and provide support.
Early-session selling has pushed the 15-minute KDJ into oversold territory, but 4124 is suspended in midair. Entering directly ahead of the CPI data risks getting shaken out. Below, 4092–4102 brings together last night’s starting point for the rally, the 4-hour middle band, and the 50% retracement of the rise from 4054 to 4148. It would be safer to wait for a pullback into this area before buying.
Trading strategy
Go long at 4090-4100; target 4130-4160-4190; stop 4074#xau $XAU
The pullback in oil prices has eased inflation concerns. The market expects US October CPI growth to slow tonight. Combined with the central bank’s 24th consecutive month of gold purchases providing support, this helped drive an overnight surge to 4148, a new high. Although prices fell back to 4124 amid expectations of a December rate hike, gains in US stocks, and profit-taking at the institutional target of 4150, safe-haven support remains from today’s US-Russia-Ukraine meeting in Abu Dhabi, the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, and remarks by Fed officials.
The daily chart is holding firmly above the middle band (4063). On the 12-hour chart, the MACD fast line has crossed above the zero line, with the swing trend pointing toward the upper band at 4185. The 4-hour middle band (4096) and 1-hour middle band (4116) continue to rise and provide support.
Early-session selling has pushed the 15-minute KDJ into oversold territory, but 4124 is suspended in midair. Entering directly ahead of the CPI data risks getting shaken out. Below, 4092–4102 brings together last night’s starting point for the rally, the 4-hour middle band, and the 50% retracement of the rise from 4054 to 4148. It would be safer to wait for a pullback into this area before buying.
Trading strategy
Go long at 4090-4100; target 4130-4160-4190; stop 4074#xau $XAU
