Market maker's perspective: $BTC 00:00 Only $41.9 left to hold above 75,000; reclaimed it at 07:00, then was back at the line by 08:00
๐ 08:39 snapshot (OKX perpetuals): Current price 75,015.2; 24h high 75,564 / low 73,711.1, up about 0.27% over 24h; OI 34,812.6 coins, about $2.611 billion, up about 90.3 coins since the 07:47 check; current funding rate about 0.0024%/8h (settled at 0.0046% at 08:00; next settlement at 16:00), premium remains negative; in a sample of 100 trades over about 5.9 seconds, 10 were aggressive buys and 90 aggressive sellsโreference only.
Overnight review (1H closing-price basis):
23:00 closed at 75,492.9, triggering continuation of the rebound above 75,000; 00:00 closed at 75,041.9, leaving only $41.9 above 75,000.
01:00 closed at 74,751.3 and 02:00 at 74,669; both hourly closes fell back below 75,000. The 02:00 low was 74,391.7, still $291.7 above the lower pressure line at 74,100โit wasn't touched.
The three closes from 03:00โ05:00 were 74,851.9 / 74,834.1 / 74,987.7, grinding below 75,000; 06:00 closed at 75,241.9, reclaiming the level by $241.9, and 07:00 closed at 75,320, pushing up another notch and marking the highest overnight close. The 07:00 high was 75,347.2, still $252.8 short of 75,600.
08:00 in progress: open 75,319.9, high 75,396, low 75,003.3โjust $3.3 above 75,000. The close is not yet set, so it doesn't count as a break.
If I were the market maker:
I pushed price above 75,000 at 23:00 last night, and at 00:00 it held by just $41.9. That close was right on the edge of the line. After the two closes from 01:00โ02:00, I don't need to chase; there are plenty of people waiting for a retest below the line. The three hours from 03:00โ05:00 ground on without breaking 74,391.7, which shows buyers below the line are still there. After the two closes from 06:00โ07:00 reclaimed 75,000, there's no reason for me to dump it back below the line myself. CPI is at 21:30 tonight, so I don't need to reveal my direction during the dayโgrinding a few hundred dollars back and forth around 75,000 tests the patience of those waiting for the close.
Retail traders following the market maker:
Wait for the close; don't guess while the candle is still in progress. If the 08:00 candle closes above 75,000, the reclaim still holds; if it closes back below 75,000, the 06:00โ07:00 reclaim is invalidated for now. Until either 75,600 or 74,100 is triggered, the daytime action before CPI is just grinding around the level. The 21:00 close is the last complete close before CPI; the 21:00โ22:00 candle spans the data release, so don't predict before it closes.
๐ Invalidation points (1H closing-price basis):
A 1H close above 75,600 would signal a short squeeze starting; next watch 75,900โ76,200. A 1H close back below 75,000 would invalidate the 06:00โ07:00 reclaim; next watch 74,669 / 74,100. A 1H close below 74,100 would signal downside pressure starting; next watch 73,800โ74,100 and 73,200โ73,500.
Today's focus: U.S. October CPI is released at 21:30 SGT tonight. During the day, watch only whether 75,000 holds and which levelโ75,600 or 74,100โis triggered first.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
๐ 08:39 snapshot (OKX perpetuals): Current price 75,015.2; 24h high 75,564 / low 73,711.1, up about 0.27% over 24h; OI 34,812.6 coins, about $2.611 billion, up about 90.3 coins since the 07:47 check; current funding rate about 0.0024%/8h (settled at 0.0046% at 08:00; next settlement at 16:00), premium remains negative; in a sample of 100 trades over about 5.9 seconds, 10 were aggressive buys and 90 aggressive sellsโreference only.
Overnight review (1H closing-price basis):
23:00 closed at 75,492.9, triggering continuation of the rebound above 75,000; 00:00 closed at 75,041.9, leaving only $41.9 above 75,000.
01:00 closed at 74,751.3 and 02:00 at 74,669; both hourly closes fell back below 75,000. The 02:00 low was 74,391.7, still $291.7 above the lower pressure line at 74,100โit wasn't touched.
The three closes from 03:00โ05:00 were 74,851.9 / 74,834.1 / 74,987.7, grinding below 75,000; 06:00 closed at 75,241.9, reclaiming the level by $241.9, and 07:00 closed at 75,320, pushing up another notch and marking the highest overnight close. The 07:00 high was 75,347.2, still $252.8 short of 75,600.
08:00 in progress: open 75,319.9, high 75,396, low 75,003.3โjust $3.3 above 75,000. The close is not yet set, so it doesn't count as a break.
If I were the market maker:
I pushed price above 75,000 at 23:00 last night, and at 00:00 it held by just $41.9. That close was right on the edge of the line. After the two closes from 01:00โ02:00, I don't need to chase; there are plenty of people waiting for a retest below the line. The three hours from 03:00โ05:00 ground on without breaking 74,391.7, which shows buyers below the line are still there. After the two closes from 06:00โ07:00 reclaimed 75,000, there's no reason for me to dump it back below the line myself. CPI is at 21:30 tonight, so I don't need to reveal my direction during the dayโgrinding a few hundred dollars back and forth around 75,000 tests the patience of those waiting for the close.
Retail traders following the market maker:
Wait for the close; don't guess while the candle is still in progress. If the 08:00 candle closes above 75,000, the reclaim still holds; if it closes back below 75,000, the 06:00โ07:00 reclaim is invalidated for now. Until either 75,600 or 74,100 is triggered, the daytime action before CPI is just grinding around the level. The 21:00 close is the last complete close before CPI; the 21:00โ22:00 candle spans the data release, so don't predict before it closes.
๐ Invalidation points (1H closing-price basis):
A 1H close above 75,600 would signal a short squeeze starting; next watch 75,900โ76,200. A 1H close back below 75,000 would invalidate the 06:00โ07:00 reclaim; next watch 74,669 / 74,100. A 1H close below 74,100 would signal downside pressure starting; next watch 73,800โ74,100 and 73,200โ73,500.
Today's focus: U.S. October CPI is released at 21:30 SGT tonight. During the day, watch only whether 75,000 holds and which levelโ75,600 or 74,100โis triggered first.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
