The exodus didn’t happen. What happened was a transfer of pricing power.
SOL has fallen for five straight weeks, and SOL-themed ETFs have also seen five straight weeks of outflows, totaling about 170 million dollars. Last week’s outflow alone was 26.25 million dollars. That sounds like a lot, but the five-week total is only 96% of Binance’s 177.3 million dollars in daily spot trading volume for SOL. Five weeks of institutional redemptions couldn’t match a single day of organic turnover. Across the whole market, that share would be even smaller.
Overnight, US stocks offered a point of comparison. The Nasdaq rose 2.74%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.85%. BTC rose just 0.35% in 24 hours—less than one-seventh of the Nasdaq’s gain. BNB rose 0.57%, outperforming both ETH and SOL. Risk appetite has indeed returned, but only to equities.
Now look at SOL itself: it fell 0.51% over the past 24 hours, with trading volume at 98% of its 30-day average. Five straight weeks of declines, without a single volume spike.
That means what’s weighing on SOL isn’t its own ETF flows, but December rate-hike pricing. According to CME, the odds are still above 80%. I’m bearish in the short term, but not on its on-chain usage, because the numbers don’t show the kind of volume you’d expect in a panic.
One thing I’m watching: after CPI comes out tonight, if the odds of a December rate hike fall below 70% and SOL still can’t get back above 90, I’ll change my view. That would mean what’s weighing on it really is something specific to SOL.
In this selloff, do you see it as a rates story or a SOL story?
$SOL $BNB $BTC #BinanceSquare #Solana #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
Crypto assets are high-risk. The above is my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own judgment (DYOR).
SOL has fallen for five straight weeks, and SOL-themed ETFs have also seen five straight weeks of outflows, totaling about 170 million dollars. Last week’s outflow alone was 26.25 million dollars. That sounds like a lot, but the five-week total is only 96% of Binance’s 177.3 million dollars in daily spot trading volume for SOL. Five weeks of institutional redemptions couldn’t match a single day of organic turnover. Across the whole market, that share would be even smaller.
Overnight, US stocks offered a point of comparison. The Nasdaq rose 2.74%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.85%. BTC rose just 0.35% in 24 hours—less than one-seventh of the Nasdaq’s gain. BNB rose 0.57%, outperforming both ETH and SOL. Risk appetite has indeed returned, but only to equities.
Now look at SOL itself: it fell 0.51% over the past 24 hours, with trading volume at 98% of its 30-day average. Five straight weeks of declines, without a single volume spike.
That means what’s weighing on SOL isn’t its own ETF flows, but December rate-hike pricing. According to CME, the odds are still above 80%. I’m bearish in the short term, but not on its on-chain usage, because the numbers don’t show the kind of volume you’d expect in a panic.
One thing I’m watching: after CPI comes out tonight, if the odds of a December rate hike fall below 70% and SOL still can’t get back above 90, I’ll change my view. That would mean what’s weighing on it really is something specific to SOL.
In this selloff, do you see it as a rates story or a SOL story?
$SOL $BNB $BTC #BinanceSquare #Solana #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
Crypto assets are high-risk. The above is my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own judgment (DYOR).
