CPI is out tonight: after five straight weeks of losses, BTC traders should look beyond the first rebound candle
At 21:30 Beijing time on November 10, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October CPI. This matters not because one data point can determine Bitcoin’s direction on its own, but because after five consecutive weeks of losses on the weekly chart, the market has entered a repricing window for inflation, interest-rate expectations, and demand for risk assets.
Start with the event schedule: the BLS calendar confirms that October CPI will be released today at 08:30 ET. On October 28, the Fed kept the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%, but two members voted for a rate hike. The next meeting is December 8–9. So tonight, the key question is not whether CPI is “good or bad,” but how the data compares with expectations and changes bets on December policy—and whether the dollar, yields, and BTC move in the same direction.
Main focus BTC / USDT spot entry:
https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/trade/BTC_USDT
As of approximately 06:50 Beijing time, Binance BTC spot was around $75,242, up 1.278% over 24 hours, with an intraday range of approximately $73,750–$75,734.51 and a quote trading volume of approximately 1.24313 billion USDT. This is an intraday snapshot; it does not mean the weekly decline has ended. Binance’s 1-week candlestick chart shows that the last five completed weekly candles closed at approximately $83,773, $82,116, $80,154, $78,354, and $74,851, confirming five consecutive weekly declines. However, the new weekly candle that began at 08:00 on November 9 is still forming, so this week’s rebound cannot be counted in advance.
Next, BTC / USDT USDⓈ-M perpetuals:
https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/futures/BTCUSDT
At the same time, perpetuals were around $75,211.5, up 1.304% over 24 hours, with a quote trading volume of approximately 13.70007 billion USDT, a mark price of approximately $75,215.9, open interest of approximately 98,701.466 BTC, and a recent funding rate of approximately +0.0100% per period. Both spot and perpetuals are rebounding, but perpetual trading volume is significantly higher than spot volume. This indicates activity in leveraged markets, but does not on its own prove that new longs are entering, nor should the funding rate be treated as a guarantee of direction.
ETH / USDT spot can serve as a second point of reference for risk appetite:
https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/trade/ETH_USDT
At the same time, ETH spot was around $2,134.89, up 0.542% over 24 hours, with a quote trading volume of approximately 702.80 million USDT. ETH / USDT USDⓈ-M perpetuals:
https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/futures/ETHUSDT
ETH perpetuals were around $2,133.86, up 0.512% over 24 hours, with a quote trading volume of approximately 9.95885 billion USDT, open interest of approximately 2.244446 million ETH, and a funding rate of approximately +0.009166% per period. Both BTC and ETH are rebounding, but this is only a shared snapshot before publication; it would be premature to say that risk appetite has already recovered.
My view is that the initial spike in the first minute after the CPI release is not worth chasing. It is more useful to look for confirmation on three levels: First, does the deviation of core CPI from market expectations lead to a sustained move in the dollar and Treasury yields, rather than a momentary jump? Second, can BTC hold around $75,000 at the 4-hour close after the data, rather than merely trading above that level for a few minutes? Third, is the rebound supported by spot trading, or are only perpetual open interest and funding rates heating up rapidly? If leverage surges first but spot does not follow, the rebound after five consecutive weekly declines should still be treated as a fragile recovery.
What would overturn this cautious view? If core inflation comes in below market expectations, the dollar and yields fall together, BTC recovers above $76,000 on increased volume after the data and holds there, and ETH does not weaken again, the evidence for a recovery in risk assets would strengthen considerably. Conversely, if the data comes in hot, the dollar and yields rise, and BTC falls back below its intraday low of $73,750 alongside rising perpetual open interest, that would indicate that leverage pressure remains and the five-week losing streak could extend. These are conditional scenarios, not predictions of the outcome.
The cover image is a locally saved BTCUSDT 4-hour chart: the price remains below MA35, MA99, and MA200; the automatic price axis is loaded, with a visible high of approximately 84,875.2 and a low of approximately 73,333.0. The screenshot is only intended to illustrate the price structure. The official long-form article interface currently confirms support for a single cover image only, so it should not be claimed that the chart is embedded in the article body.
Sources:
1. Binance Square trending list (observed at approximately 06:45 Beijing time): https://www.binance.com/en/square/trends
2. Binance Square topic page (approximately 513,643 views and 2,144 participants): https://www.binance.com/en/square/hashtag/cpitestsdecemberrateoutlook
3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule for November 2026: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched_list.htm
4. Federal Reserve statement, October 28: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm
5. Federal Reserve calendar for December 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-december.htm
6. BLS September 2026 CPI results: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm
7. Binance public market data, candlestick, mark price, funding rate, and open interest endpoints (data cutoff approximately 06:50): https://api.binance.com/api/v3/klines?symbol=BTCUSDT&interval=1w&limit=8 、https://api.binance.com/api/v3/ticker/24hr?symbol=BTCUSDT 、https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/ticker/24hr?symbol=BTCUSDT 、https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/openInterest?symbol=BTCUSDT
Risk disclaimer: This article is for observing public events and market data only and does not constitute investment advice. CPI is macroeconomic data and does not automatically determine whether BTC rises or falls; intraday prices, open interest, funding rates, and perpetual trading volume change continuously. Spot and USDⓈ-M perpetuals differ in liquidity, leverage, liquidation, and settlement mechanisms. Do not treat an intraday rebound or a single indicator as confirmation of a trend. The cover image is from a locally saved BTCUSDT 4-hour chart; its online display and link behavior still need to be checked after publication.
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #CPI #FederalReserve #Bitcoin
$BTC $ETH