$BTC reclaimed 75,000, but don't rush to call it a reversal—the current price is 75,325, still a breath away from the real test
First, the facts: after dipping to 73,708 in Sunday's overnight session, $BTC climbed back above 75,000, trading between 73,750 and 75,735 intraday, up 1.37%. But it still hasn't cleared the 75,450 hurdle—that's the average cost basis for Strategy's 850,364 coins (its November 9 8-K just disclosed another purchase of 1,036 coins at an average price of 79,012). With the price below someone else's cost basis, it's too early to talk about a reversal.
$ETH is weaker: the current price is 2,132, and Sunday's close fell below the 200-day moving average for the first time since August 18. The 2,400 floor has now turned into a ceiling.
What the bulls are saying:
@cryptosymbiiote: The liquidation heatmap shows the bottom is in; next target is 77,000
@trade_it_: The (iii) wave low at 73,444 held, and 74.7-74.8k was reclaimed—structurally, that's a higher low
What the bears are saying:
@kicka_one: Hotter-than-expected CPI → stronger dollar, putting $BTC under pressure; holding up in a sideways market is already a decent result
@CryptoYuXin: Don't mistake sideways action for a bottom; tonight's CPI is the main event
My take:
Tonight's CPI at 21:30 (forecast: +0.3% month over month, core +0.2%) is the dividing line. Don't chase longs before CPI: only a close holding above 75,500 would count as reclaiming the top of the range; until 79,400 is reclaimed, treat any rally as a countertrend bounce. If it falls back below 73,700, watch 73,163 (the 200-day moving average); if it can't hold that level at the close, watch 70,000. The odds of a December rate hike are now around 80%, so trade less and watch more before CPI.
First, the facts: after dipping to 73,708 in Sunday's overnight session, $BTC climbed back above 75,000, trading between 73,750 and 75,735 intraday, up 1.37%. But it still hasn't cleared the 75,450 hurdle—that's the average cost basis for Strategy's 850,364 coins (its November 9 8-K just disclosed another purchase of 1,036 coins at an average price of 79,012). With the price below someone else's cost basis, it's too early to talk about a reversal.
$ETH is weaker: the current price is 2,132, and Sunday's close fell below the 200-day moving average for the first time since August 18. The 2,400 floor has now turned into a ceiling.
What the bulls are saying:
@cryptosymbiiote: The liquidation heatmap shows the bottom is in; next target is 77,000
@trade_it_: The (iii) wave low at 73,444 held, and 74.7-74.8k was reclaimed—structurally, that's a higher low
What the bears are saying:
@kicka_one: Hotter-than-expected CPI → stronger dollar, putting $BTC under pressure; holding up in a sideways market is already a decent result
@CryptoYuXin: Don't mistake sideways action for a bottom; tonight's CPI is the main event
My take:
Tonight's CPI at 21:30 (forecast: +0.3% month over month, core +0.2%) is the dividing line. Don't chase longs before CPI: only a close holding above 75,500 would count as reclaiming the top of the range; until 79,400 is reclaimed, treat any rally as a countertrend bounce. If it falls back below 73,700, watch 73,163 (the 200-day moving average); if it can't hold that level at the close, watch 70,000. The odds of a December rate hike are now around 80%, so trade less and watch more before CPI.