Hot Monday: The stock market rebounded, but crypto didn't follow.

S&P +2.3% (7547), Nasdaq +2.5%, semiconductors +6.8% (AMD +11%, AVGO +9%).
VIX 20.2 (−21%), WTI ~88 (−3%).
NVDA −5…6% amid an internal board investigation
surrounding Huang. This is a company-specific story, and the sector fell on the news.
BTC: low of 73,715 (07:00 UTC), spike to 75,548, pullback to 74.75K.
Double rejection in the 75.5–75.7K zone
VIX fell from 25.6 to 20.2 (−21%)
WTI −3% to ~88.
Since Sunday's close (74.82K), BTC has gone nowhere, while Nasdaq is up +2.5%.
A week ago, crypto fell along with tech stocks; now it isn't rising as tech bounces. That means it has its own sellers: ETFs and excess leverage.

BTC ETFs this week: −$1,282M

(Mon −399, Tue −116, Wed +75, Thu −430, Fri −412).

IBIT accounted for −$1,210M, or 94% of outflows. FBTC, by contrast, saw +$93M.

On Friday, all crypto funds saw −$537M:

BTC −412, ETH −93, SOL −24, HYPE −8.

BTC futures

OI/market cap 3.46% (annual high)

CME: OI −2.2% in 24 hours ($7.14B).

Aggregate OI $51.98B (+0.9%).

Liquidations did not reduce positions.

Futures are being sold: −$1.1B in taker flow over 24h, −$2.1B over 7 days.

Spot is absorbing the selling: +$101M over 12h, net on Binance +$74M, Bybit +$31M, Coinbase +$12M. Selling on OKX (−$29M), Kraken (−$28M), Upbit (−$11M).

Binance perpetuals are below spot (−0.043%), while funding is +0.009%

Longs are keeping funding positive, while aggressive selling in perpetuals is pressuring the price.

CME BTC

OI 17,527 contracts: −3,264 over the week

Leveraged funds net short 13.0K BTC.

Managers net long 12.0K BTC

The basis trade is almost unwound (funds are buying back CME shorts, while IBIT is losing shares), and managers are cutting longs at the same time. Institutional exposure is shrinking on both sides.

ETH

OI: Binance −10%, OKX −9.5%, Bybit −7.8%

Funding +0.005%. Liquidations: $508M (90% longs)

Levels: bids 2108, asks 2218, shorts 2171.

CME $ETH ETH:

OI 22,869 contracts (−5,199), leveraged funds net short 185K ETH.

Managers moved to a net short position (−1,825 contracts).

Conclusions and trends

Main seller:

IBIT plus managers cutting CME longs

basis trade unwound

Without two or three days of ETF inflows of +$200M or more, any bounce will be sold.

BTC leverage has not been flushed out.

Rising OI after liquidations and an account ratio of ~3 alongside positive funding signal a high risk of another squeeze

A bottom usually forms when funding is ≤0 and aggregate OI falls by 5% or more.