Four in ten bitcoins are underwater. At $74.5K, 8.43M of the 20.02M BTC in existence last moved on days when the price was higher, 42% of all coins (ledger as of Nov-08). Age splits it: of the coins that moved within the last 155 days, 74% are underwater. Of the older ones, 35%, and those 5.6M BTC carry a median cost of $95K, mostly coins that last changed hands in 2025 and sat through the drop. Coins in profit have dropped below 58% from above 70% within 90 days 11 times since 2012. Ninety days later the price was higher in 6 of 11, median +0.8%, worst −49% (Sep-2018), best +104% (Mar-2020). Statistics, not a forecast: 11 cases and a coin flip. Underwater is a fact about the holders, not a floor under the price.