The consumer price index for October comes out on Tuesday—the last inflation report the Fed will see before its December 8–9 meeting. After Friday’s labor market data, the odds of a rate hike are already around 77%. The catch is, this report won’t include a year-over-year figure.
In October 2025, because of the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics simply didn’t collect price data, so there’s no official basis for comparison with October 2026. All we’ll have is the month-over-month change, which is expected to come in at +0.3%. The very figure everyone is used to seeing in headlines will be replaced by a dash in the table.
To me, that’s the absurdity of the days ahead. Crypto will swing again not because of what the report says, but because of how the market fills in the blank for itself. Some will call +0.3% a sign of cooling, while others will say inflation still hasn’t been beaten.
Will you be looking at the report itself, or straight at the futures reaction?
In October 2025, because of the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics simply didn’t collect price data, so there’s no official basis for comparison with October 2026. All we’ll have is the month-over-month change, which is expected to come in at +0.3%. The very figure everyone is used to seeing in headlines will be replaced by a dash in the table.
To me, that’s the absurdity of the days ahead. Crypto will swing again not because of what the report says, but because of how the market fills in the blank for itself. Some will call +0.3% a sign of cooling, while others will say inflation still hasn’t been beaten.
Will you be looking at the report itself, or straight at the futures reaction?