A $148 million sell order, with a public timetable—$ETH $SOL $XRP is a known blade hanging over our heads tonight.
An address on Hyperliquid started a 16-hour TWAP today: 30,282 ETH (about $55.46 million), 550,000 SOL (10x leverage), and 35.03 million XRP (about $35 million), totaling roughly $148 million. It will sell at a steady pace through tomorrow at 06:00 GMT, or 14:00 Beijing time. That’s about $9.25 million in hourly selling pressure, out in the open and written on-chain. On-chain analysts have linked the address to last year’s UXLINK hack—but whatever the attribution, the numbers speak for themselves: this was once one of the most profitable addresses on Hyperliquid; now it’s sitting on about $3.3 million in unrealized losses and cutting its losses.
First principles: a TWAP isn’t a dump; it’s a capitulation. Capitulation selling is the hardest kind to contend with—it doesn’t care about price, only time. It keeps selling through drops and rallies alike. $ETH is now at $2,134, with a low of $2,060 today, and the 200-day moving average at $2,155 is already overhead. SOL is at $87, with its $89 200-day moving average breached intraday. $XRP 1.10 dollars; the $1.12 floor was breached today, with the next level at $1.05—just about 10% from the $1 mark.
My stance: no bottom-fishing, no chasing shorts; cautiously bearish and watching. The invalidation conditions are set in stone, all based on daily closes: if $ETH closes below $2,200 on the daily chart, the outlook shifts from neutral to cautious; a close back above $2,400 would mean the selling-pressure thesis has passed. If SOL closes below $89 on the daily chart, the bearish outlook strengthens, with $84 next; a close back above $95.51 invalidates it. If $XRP closes below $1.12 on the daily chart, the next level is $1.05; a close back above $1.18 would temporarily ease the selling-pressure thesis.
The TWAP ends tomorrow at 14:00, and CPI comes out tomorrow at 21:30—the selling stops first, the data comes later, and those seven-plus hours in between will be the real test for the bulls.
With a disclosed sell order and a countdown, will you wait for it to finish selling, or act now? Which side are you on?
Not investment advice.
#ETH #SOL #XRP
An address on Hyperliquid started a 16-hour TWAP today: 30,282 ETH (about $55.46 million), 550,000 SOL (10x leverage), and 35.03 million XRP (about $35 million), totaling roughly $148 million. It will sell at a steady pace through tomorrow at 06:00 GMT, or 14:00 Beijing time. That’s about $9.25 million in hourly selling pressure, out in the open and written on-chain. On-chain analysts have linked the address to last year’s UXLINK hack—but whatever the attribution, the numbers speak for themselves: this was once one of the most profitable addresses on Hyperliquid; now it’s sitting on about $3.3 million in unrealized losses and cutting its losses.
First principles: a TWAP isn’t a dump; it’s a capitulation. Capitulation selling is the hardest kind to contend with—it doesn’t care about price, only time. It keeps selling through drops and rallies alike. $ETH is now at $2,134, with a low of $2,060 today, and the 200-day moving average at $2,155 is already overhead. SOL is at $87, with its $89 200-day moving average breached intraday. $XRP 1.10 dollars; the $1.12 floor was breached today, with the next level at $1.05—just about 10% from the $1 mark.
My stance: no bottom-fishing, no chasing shorts; cautiously bearish and watching. The invalidation conditions are set in stone, all based on daily closes: if $ETH closes below $2,200 on the daily chart, the outlook shifts from neutral to cautious; a close back above $2,400 would mean the selling-pressure thesis has passed. If SOL closes below $89 on the daily chart, the bearish outlook strengthens, with $84 next; a close back above $95.51 invalidates it. If $XRP closes below $1.12 on the daily chart, the next level is $1.05; a close back above $1.18 would temporarily ease the selling-pressure thesis.
The TWAP ends tomorrow at 14:00, and CPI comes out tomorrow at 21:30—the selling stops first, the data comes later, and those seven-plus hours in between will be the real test for the bulls.
With a disclosed sell order and a countdown, will you wait for it to finish selling, or act now? Which side are you on?
Not investment advice.
#ETH #SOL #XRP