Title: ETH/USDT: Why I’m Not Catching This Falling Knife
I’ve been watching ETH/USDT, and this 1-hour chart is a textbook example of why front-running a bounce is a dangerous game. What immediately caught my attention isn't just the -5.32% daily drop, but the staggering 88% sell pressure glaring at me from the order book.
Look at the structure. We saw a steady grind near the 2,246 high, followed by a massive, single-candle flush that completely broke the market structure down to 2,070. Since that low, the price has merely chopped sideways, printing small, indecisive candles. The recent attempted bounce has completely stalled around 2,121.
This is exactly where beginners get trapped. They see a green candle after a violent drop and immediately assume the bottom is in, ignoring the overwhelming overhead supply. With an 88% sell wall, liquidity is stacked heavily against the bulls. Until I see a clear structural break to the upside—a confirmed higher high—the path of least resistance remains down. I am not stepping in front of this freight train.
Trade Plan:
· Bias: Bearish
· Entry: Sidelines for now. I’d look for a short on a weak rejection near 2,158.
· Invalidation: 1H close above 2,202 (breaks the immediate structural ceiling).
· Target 1: 2,070.26 (retest of the 24h low)
· Target 2: 2,050.00 (psychological extension)
· Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:2.5
If buyers somehow absorb this massive sell wall and reclaim 2,202 with strong volume, my thesis is invalidated, and I'll step aside. I could be wrong, but fading unconfirmed bounces in a clear downtrend usually offers better probability than guessing the bottom. How are you reading this ETH weakness—are you scaling in or waiting for a trend shift?
$ETH #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #NvidiaInvestigatesAfterHuang’sAffairApology #Write2Earn
I’ve been watching ETH/USDT, and this 1-hour chart is a textbook example of why front-running a bounce is a dangerous game. What immediately caught my attention isn't just the -5.32% daily drop, but the staggering 88% sell pressure glaring at me from the order book.
Look at the structure. We saw a steady grind near the 2,246 high, followed by a massive, single-candle flush that completely broke the market structure down to 2,070. Since that low, the price has merely chopped sideways, printing small, indecisive candles. The recent attempted bounce has completely stalled around 2,121.
This is exactly where beginners get trapped. They see a green candle after a violent drop and immediately assume the bottom is in, ignoring the overwhelming overhead supply. With an 88% sell wall, liquidity is stacked heavily against the bulls. Until I see a clear structural break to the upside—a confirmed higher high—the path of least resistance remains down. I am not stepping in front of this freight train.
Trade Plan:
· Bias: Bearish
· Entry: Sidelines for now. I’d look for a short on a weak rejection near 2,158.
· Invalidation: 1H close above 2,202 (breaks the immediate structural ceiling).
· Target 1: 2,070.26 (retest of the 24h low)
· Target 2: 2,050.00 (psychological extension)
· Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:2.5
If buyers somehow absorb this massive sell wall and reclaim 2,202 with strong volume, my thesis is invalidated, and I'll step aside. I could be wrong, but fading unconfirmed bounces in a clear downtrend usually offers better probability than guessing the bottom. How are you reading this ETH weakness—are you scaling in or waiting for a trend shift?
$ETH #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #NvidiaInvestigatesAfterHuang’sAffairApology #Write2Earn