Price hikes are starting at Chinese factories, and this is bigger than you think.
The data most likely to get scrolled past today: China’s PPI rose 5.7% year over year, its fastest pace since June 2022, accelerating for three straight months. Energy costs are pushing relentlessly higher, and the world’s factory can’t absorb them any longer—it’s starting to pass those prices on.
The twist is the divergence: factory-gate prices are surging, but domestic demand is still terribly weak. Domestic natural gas prices are actually softening; LNG isn’t selling, so cargoes originally meant for before winter are being resold to Europe. European gas prices have just broken €100/MWh, and China has helped give this rally another boost along the way.
But don’t celebrate too soon: higher prices for Chinese manufactured goods mean global inflation is making a comeback. Tuesday’s U.S. CPI report is judgment day. Williams, Musalem, and Daly spent the weekend taking turns calling for rate hikes, and this data is ammunition for the hawks.
There’s movement on the supply side, too: Trump has endorsed a bipartisan energy permitting bill, with a Senate vote just around the corner. The bill would speed up approvals for major energy infrastructure projects. It won’t help immediately, but it’s a step in the right direction.
$BTC is hovering around 75,000, while $ETH $SOL can’t even muster a decent rebound, under pressure from both macro tightening and an AI-stock sell-off. For now, treat any bounce as just a bounce. Position size matters more than conviction.
NFA DYOR
#中国PPI #通胀交易 #美联储 #CPI #Bitcoin
The data most likely to get scrolled past today: China’s PPI rose 5.7% year over year, its fastest pace since June 2022, accelerating for three straight months. Energy costs are pushing relentlessly higher, and the world’s factory can’t absorb them any longer—it’s starting to pass those prices on.
The twist is the divergence: factory-gate prices are surging, but domestic demand is still terribly weak. Domestic natural gas prices are actually softening; LNG isn’t selling, so cargoes originally meant for before winter are being resold to Europe. European gas prices have just broken €100/MWh, and China has helped give this rally another boost along the way.
But don’t celebrate too soon: higher prices for Chinese manufactured goods mean global inflation is making a comeback. Tuesday’s U.S. CPI report is judgment day. Williams, Musalem, and Daly spent the weekend taking turns calling for rate hikes, and this data is ammunition for the hawks.
There’s movement on the supply side, too: Trump has endorsed a bipartisan energy permitting bill, with a Senate vote just around the corner. The bill would speed up approvals for major energy infrastructure projects. It won’t help immediately, but it’s a step in the right direction.
$BTC is hovering around 75,000, while $ETH $SOL can’t even muster a decent rebound, under pressure from both macro tightening and an AI-stock sell-off. For now, treat any bounce as just a bounce. Position size matters more than conviction.
NFA DYOR
#中国PPI #通胀交易 #美联储 #CPI #Bitcoin