Daily updates

Last night's article said that after moving sideways in the short term, the market would drop once more. We watched to see whether it would fall to 74,000 or 73,500 last night or this morning. As expected, it briefly dipped to around 73,500 before 6 a.m. today. Structurally, the 1-hour decline that began with the bull trap around 81,000 should now be coming to an end. Next, we can expect a 1-hour rebound.

After the 1-hour rebound ends, another 1-hour decline is expected. The key will be to see whether, once that decline is complete, it can bring the entire daily-chart correction to a successful end.

This week will be crucial. If BTC is going to make a run at 100,000 and enter a small bull market, then it should normally fall on the daily chart this week, bottom out, and start a new rally over the weekend or next week.

Singles’ Day is just around the corner. In the article and community posts on September 24, I suggested waiting for the Singles’ Day discount. We’re now nearly there, and prices are generally much lower than they were on September 24—especially altcoins and major cryptocurrencies, which have seen further discounts on top of the initial markdowns. After the sale, whether prices can take off again will depend on how the market moves over the next few days.

Overall, stay optimistic but exercise a little caution in case unusual market conditions arise.

Medium- and short-term trend direction

4h main trend: We’re currently in the third 4h down leg within a daily downtrend. This 4h down leg probably isn’t over yet, making this week a key one.

1h trend: A short-term 1h rebound may be due. Let’s see if it materializes.

BTC short-term outlook

Since market conditions can change quickly in the short term, this article can only offer a forecast based on the market at the time of publication. Short-term traders should pay attention to the latest market movements; this is for reference only.

1H:

1) On the 1h chart, this morning’s decline was essentially an extension of the 1h down leg we expected. Price has now reached the expected area around 73500, and the short-term 1h decline may be nearing its end.

2) The overall 4h decline that began at 84898 can be simplified and refined into the structure shown in the chart above. In that case, the decline starting around 81000 can be considered a genuine 1h decline in the central-range departure leg. Since this decline is not showing divergence, after the short-term 1h rebound is complete, another 1h decline is highly likely.

3) First, watch to see whether a 1h rebound can form successfully around 73500. If it does, the rebound could reach around 77000–77500.

4) As long as the 1h rebound fails to break above 79000, another 1h decline is likely afterward, taking price back toward 73500 or around 72400.

15M:

1) On the 15-minute chart, first watch to see whether price can break above 75600 this evening. If it does, that would confirm the start of a short-term 1h rebound.

2) If a 1h rebound takes shape, it is expected to continue until tomorrow around noon or afternoon.

3) If price falls back below 73700, the 1h decline is likely to extend further in the short term, so make sure to manage risk.

ETH

1) If ETH is indeed in the fifth 4h decline within a daily downtrend, there’s a chance this 4h decline will end this week. As long as this 4h decline holds above the 2000 level (a brief wick below followed by a recovery is acceptable), ETH will then begin a new daily rebound, with a potential target above 3400.

2) The current move may be the second 1h rebound within the fifth 4h decline. Watch to see whether this rebound can reach around 2220 or higher.

3) If the 1h rebound develops successfully, a third 1h decline is highly likely afterward. That third 1h decline will be quite important: watch to see whether it can hold the 2000 level.

4) A fresh break above 2161 in the short term would confirm the start of a 1h rebound. But if price falls back below 2180, be aware that the decline may extend further. Key support below is around 2000–2030; a break above 2161 could open the way to around 2220 or higher.