ETHA’s quarterly report separates two kinds of growth | Recent redemptions can’t be ignored | ETH needs to hold 2060 before recovery is in play
My stance is defensive for now. First, I’m separating “growth in fund size” from “new inflows.” BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF filed its third-quarter report with the SEC on November 6. It showed net assets of about $9.9 billion as of September 30, up about 130.61% from $4.293 billion on June 30. That figure is striking, but the report clearly states that the main reason was the increase in ETH’s valuation over the same period, from $1,593.01 to $2,693.88, a gain of 69.11%. Net assets increased by about $2.232 billion from share creations and redemptions during the third quarter; another roughly $3.375 billion came from growth in net assets under fund operations, including about $3.551 billion in unrealized valuation gains. Describing the surge in overall fund size as “$9.9 billion in net institutional buying” would substantially overstate actual new demand.
The disclosure still matters for trading: 52.64 million shares were issued and 9.2533 million redeemed during the quarter, resulting in a net increase in shares and showing that demand for the product did exist at the time. But the reporting date was September 30, so it does not represent flows on November 9. Farside’s data is updated through November 6: ETHA saw net outflows of $90.8 million that day, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw combined net outflows of $93.3 million. The figures for individual funds on November 9 are still blank; the 0.0 shown in the total column is just the page’s pending-update status, not confirmation of a balanced flow today. Creations and redemptions can also be conducted in cash or in-kind ETH, so changes in fund shares should not be mechanically equated with spot trading on exchanges at the same time.
When I checked Binance ETHUSDT, the price was around $2,122, down about 5.23% over 24 hours, with an intraday low of 2060 and a high of 2246. The market has already signaled weaker risk appetite: the positive share data in the old quarterly report has not prevented the current pullback. I view 2060 as a short-term support level; if it breaks, the price may continue searching for buyers. 2246 is the day’s upper boundary, and until ETH gets back above it, I won’t treat a single rebound as a trend recovery. My view would be invalidated if the price holds above 2246 for consecutive sessions and subsequent ETF disclosures show sustained net inflows instead of outflows. Conversely, a break below 2060 accompanied by larger redemptions would mean that a stricter defensive stance is needed. On the macro front, the Fed’s October 28 decision is an existing policy fact, not a rate hike newly announced tonight. Ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. CPI release, I’ll also be less inclined to trust any single price move.
If I were trading this myself, I wouldn’t enter now; I’d only consider a small spot long after confirmation. If a four-hour candle closes above 2246 and the price then pulls back to 2200 and holds, I’d open a test position using 2.5% of total capital. The first target is 2320, where I’d sell half; the second target is 2400, where I’d sell half of the remaining position. After entry, I’d stop out if a four-hour candle closes back below 2160. If the price breaks below 2060 or subsequent ETF data deteriorates further, I’d close the entire remaining position. If none of these conditions are met, I’ll stay out of the market rather than describe waiting as if a trade has already been made.
#ETH
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is defensive for now. First, I’m separating “growth in fund size” from “new inflows.” BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF filed its third-quarter report with the SEC on November 6. It showed net assets of about $9.9 billion as of September 30, up about 130.61% from $4.293 billion on June 30. That figure is striking, but the report clearly states that the main reason was the increase in ETH’s valuation over the same period, from $1,593.01 to $2,693.88, a gain of 69.11%. Net assets increased by about $2.232 billion from share creations and redemptions during the third quarter; another roughly $3.375 billion came from growth in net assets under fund operations, including about $3.551 billion in unrealized valuation gains. Describing the surge in overall fund size as “$9.9 billion in net institutional buying” would substantially overstate actual new demand.
The disclosure still matters for trading: 52.64 million shares were issued and 9.2533 million redeemed during the quarter, resulting in a net increase in shares and showing that demand for the product did exist at the time. But the reporting date was September 30, so it does not represent flows on November 9. Farside’s data is updated through November 6: ETHA saw net outflows of $90.8 million that day, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw combined net outflows of $93.3 million. The figures for individual funds on November 9 are still blank; the 0.0 shown in the total column is just the page’s pending-update status, not confirmation of a balanced flow today. Creations and redemptions can also be conducted in cash or in-kind ETH, so changes in fund shares should not be mechanically equated with spot trading on exchanges at the same time.
When I checked Binance ETHUSDT, the price was around $2,122, down about 5.23% over 24 hours, with an intraday low of 2060 and a high of 2246. The market has already signaled weaker risk appetite: the positive share data in the old quarterly report has not prevented the current pullback. I view 2060 as a short-term support level; if it breaks, the price may continue searching for buyers. 2246 is the day’s upper boundary, and until ETH gets back above it, I won’t treat a single rebound as a trend recovery. My view would be invalidated if the price holds above 2246 for consecutive sessions and subsequent ETF disclosures show sustained net inflows instead of outflows. Conversely, a break below 2060 accompanied by larger redemptions would mean that a stricter defensive stance is needed. On the macro front, the Fed’s October 28 decision is an existing policy fact, not a rate hike newly announced tonight. Ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. CPI release, I’ll also be less inclined to trust any single price move.
If I were trading this myself, I wouldn’t enter now; I’d only consider a small spot long after confirmation. If a four-hour candle closes above 2246 and the price then pulls back to 2200 and holds, I’d open a test position using 2.5% of total capital. The first target is 2320, where I’d sell half; the second target is 2400, where I’d sell half of the remaining position. After entry, I’d stop out if a four-hour candle closes back below 2160. If the price breaks below 2060 or subsequent ETF data deteriorates further, I’d close the entire remaining position. If none of these conditions are met, I’ll stay out of the market rather than describe waiting as if a trade has already been made.
#ETH
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
