I looked around tonight, and today's results were pretty much what I wrote this morning, just a little uglier.

$BTC Now around 74,800, down 1.4% in 24 hours and 3.8% over the week. It dipped as low as 73,477 last night, its lowest level since late August. $ETH Around 2,120, down 5.2% in 24 hours and 7.2% over the week—much weaker than Bitcoin. $XRP Around 1.10, down 11.6% over the week, making it the worst performer among the major coins I've been watching. The Fear and Greed Index is at 29, still in fear territory.

What concerns me more than the price is the money. Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion in net outflows, their worst week since late June. As a result, year-to-date net inflows have also flipped to net outflows. Ethereum ETFs have now seen outflows for six consecutive weeks. Add roughly $1.1 billion in liquidations over the 24 hours from yesterday to this morning, and this isn't the story of any one coin—it's money pulling out of the market as a whole.

My habit in situations like this is not to rush into a directional bet, but to do just two things: first, reduce my position to a level where I can still sleep soundly even if I get stopped out once; second, write down the key levels. For BTC, I’m watching around 75,500 above (near the 50-week moving average), and around 73,000 below, where many institutions place the 200-day moving average. If that level breaks decisively, the next round-number level everyone will be watching is 70,000.

There’s really just one thing to watch tomorrow: U.S. October CPI will be released at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on Tuesday, with monthly inflation expected to come in at around 0.2%. The market has already priced in quite a bit of a December rate hike, so hotter-than-expected data could add more pressure, while softer data might offer some breathing room. U.S. bond markets are closed on Wednesday, and PPI is due on Friday, so volatility is likely to be significant this week.

I see both scenarios as range-bound for now: if 73,000 holds and CPI isn’t hotter than expected, we’ll most likely see a choppy recovery; if 73,000 breaks on strong volume and ETF outflows continue, be prepared for a test of 70,000.

One last question for you: before CPI, are you choosing to reduce your position and wait for the data, or are you holding as usual?

The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk, so manage your own positions carefully.