Market Maker’s View: $BTC Evening Session: Two afternoon closes broke support; at 20:00 price climbed to the 75,000 mark
📊 20:38 snapshot: Current price 74,871.3, 24h high 76,160 / low 73,385, down about 1.37% over 24h.
Open interest: 35,211.8 coins, worth about $2.637 billion, up about 1,029.2 coins from midday; current funding rate 0.0068%/8h (16:00 settlement: 0.0096%), next settlement at 00:00.
Afternoon recap: At midday, I said, “If the 1H candle closes below 74,433.4, more than half the gains will be given back.” That played out in the afternoon—13:00 closed at 74,442.1, just $8.7 above the level, narrowly avoiding a break; 14:00 closed at 74,274.4, $159.0 below it; 15:00 closed at 73,837.1, breaking below 74,094.1 by another $257.0. The 15:00 low was 73,718.1, still $333.1 above the 24h low of 73,385. It didn’t break.
Spot prices showed the same pattern: 14:00 closed at 74,302.3, $131.1 below 74,433.4; 15:00 closed at 73,882.2, another $264.1 below 74,146.3.
The four closes from 16:00–19:00 were 74,526.7 / 74,257.7 / 74,118.5 / 74,333.4, grinding within a narrow $408.2 range. The 20:00 candle surged from 74,333.5 to 74,998, just $2 short of the 75,000 mark.
If I were the market maker: After those two afternoon closes broke support, the bears had already played half their hand—the 74,433.4 and 74,094.1 levels both broke on a closing basis the same day, so chasing shorts isn’t cheap. This late-session surge to the 75,000 mark could be bulls testing whether anyone will buy higher, or bears waiting for a better level to add to their positions. It’s impossible to tell before the close. I won’t guess the direction; I’ll just watch where the 21:00 candle closes: a close above 75,000 means the late-session rally has found buyers; a close back below 74,433.4 means this was only an intraday rebound, and the breakdown still stands.
Retail traders following the market makers: Wait for confirmation at the close; don’t chase the live price. Before the 20:00 candle closes, neither the current price of 74,871.3 nor the wick high of 74,998 counts.
📌 Invalidation levels (1H closing basis):
A 21:00 close above 75,000 would extend the rebound; next watch 75,600.
A 1H close back below 74,433.4 would invalidate the 20:00 surge; next watch 74,118.5.
A break below 73,718.1 would put the afternoon low at risk; next watch 73,385.
For discussion purposes only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerView
📊 20:38 snapshot: Current price 74,871.3, 24h high 76,160 / low 73,385, down about 1.37% over 24h.
Open interest: 35,211.8 coins, worth about $2.637 billion, up about 1,029.2 coins from midday; current funding rate 0.0068%/8h (16:00 settlement: 0.0096%), next settlement at 00:00.
Afternoon recap: At midday, I said, “If the 1H candle closes below 74,433.4, more than half the gains will be given back.” That played out in the afternoon—13:00 closed at 74,442.1, just $8.7 above the level, narrowly avoiding a break; 14:00 closed at 74,274.4, $159.0 below it; 15:00 closed at 73,837.1, breaking below 74,094.1 by another $257.0. The 15:00 low was 73,718.1, still $333.1 above the 24h low of 73,385. It didn’t break.
Spot prices showed the same pattern: 14:00 closed at 74,302.3, $131.1 below 74,433.4; 15:00 closed at 73,882.2, another $264.1 below 74,146.3.
The four closes from 16:00–19:00 were 74,526.7 / 74,257.7 / 74,118.5 / 74,333.4, grinding within a narrow $408.2 range. The 20:00 candle surged from 74,333.5 to 74,998, just $2 short of the 75,000 mark.
If I were the market maker: After those two afternoon closes broke support, the bears had already played half their hand—the 74,433.4 and 74,094.1 levels both broke on a closing basis the same day, so chasing shorts isn’t cheap. This late-session surge to the 75,000 mark could be bulls testing whether anyone will buy higher, or bears waiting for a better level to add to their positions. It’s impossible to tell before the close. I won’t guess the direction; I’ll just watch where the 21:00 candle closes: a close above 75,000 means the late-session rally has found buyers; a close back below 74,433.4 means this was only an intraday rebound, and the breakdown still stands.
Retail traders following the market makers: Wait for confirmation at the close; don’t chase the live price. Before the 20:00 candle closes, neither the current price of 74,871.3 nor the wick high of 74,998 counts.
📌 Invalidation levels (1H closing basis):
A 21:00 close above 75,000 would extend the rebound; next watch 75,600.
A 1H close back below 74,433.4 would invalidate the 20:00 surge; next watch 74,118.5.
A break below 73,718.1 would put the afternoon low at risk; next watch 73,385.
For discussion purposes only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerView
