Bafang | BTC Evening Market Analysis 11.09
Data time: Beijing time, 11.09 20:30
The afternoon dip didn’t break through support, and prices slowly climbed back in the evening.
$BTC The hourly low at 4 p.m. was 73,751, just 250 or so above the overnight low of 73,500 before prices were pulled back up. After that, BTC moved between 74,050 and 74,820 from 5–7 p.m. This hour, it touched 74,922; it’s now at 74,872, down 1.47% over 24 hours.
BTC has reclaimed the daily EMA200 (74,540), which it lost around midday. The 4-hour RSI has rebounded from around 26 at midday to 38.6; the daily RSI is 35.8. The MACD histogram is at -731, narrowing slightly from -819 at midday, but the bearish alignment remains.
There’s one thing I don’t like: the long/short account ratio was 2.91 at 3 p.m., jumped to 3.06 at 4 p.m., and is now 2.98. Prices have barely bounced, and retail traders are already adding long positions again. The funding rate is 0.0073%, so things aren’t overheated.
In U.S. markets, around 20:23 Beijing time, S&P futures were up 0.6%, while Dow futures rose nearly 1%. But Nvidia’s board has launched an internal investigation into Jensen Huang, and the stock is down about 6% in premarket trading. MSTR and CRCL are also down more than 3% premarket. U.S. markets open at 22:30; if crypto stocks weaken, it’ll be hard for BTC to rally on its own.
$ETH 2,125.7, down 5.1% over 24 hours, is right at the daily Bollinger lower band of 2,120.6. It has yet to reclaim the MA200 (2,155).
$SOL 86.77, daily RSI 27.5, still in oversold territory.
October CPI data comes out tomorrow night at 21:30 Beijing time. Tonight will most likely be a pre-CPI test.
Key levels
Resistance: 74,922 (tonight’s high) / 75,000 / 75,598 (morning high)
Support: 74,540 (daily EMA200) / 73,751 (afternoon low) / 73,500 (overnight low) / 73,207 (daily MA200)
View: Range-bound with a bearish bias. The rebound is here, but there’s a lot of overhead supply between 75,000 and 75,600. Until prices can hold above that zone, I’ll treat this as a relief bounce.
Bafang’s view: Tonight, the main thing to watch is how crypto stocks move after the U.S. market opens. If 74,540 holds, BTC may chop within the range while waiting for CPI. If it falls back below, 73,500 will probably be tested again. I won’t add to my position tonight.
Do you think BTC will hit 75,000 first after the U.S. market opens, or return to 74,500 first?
(Personal opinion only; not investment advice.)
#BTC #美股 #CPI
Data time: Beijing time, 11.09 20:30
The afternoon dip didn’t break through support, and prices slowly climbed back in the evening.
$BTC The hourly low at 4 p.m. was 73,751, just 250 or so above the overnight low of 73,500 before prices were pulled back up. After that, BTC moved between 74,050 and 74,820 from 5–7 p.m. This hour, it touched 74,922; it’s now at 74,872, down 1.47% over 24 hours.
BTC has reclaimed the daily EMA200 (74,540), which it lost around midday. The 4-hour RSI has rebounded from around 26 at midday to 38.6; the daily RSI is 35.8. The MACD histogram is at -731, narrowing slightly from -819 at midday, but the bearish alignment remains.
There’s one thing I don’t like: the long/short account ratio was 2.91 at 3 p.m., jumped to 3.06 at 4 p.m., and is now 2.98. Prices have barely bounced, and retail traders are already adding long positions again. The funding rate is 0.0073%, so things aren’t overheated.
In U.S. markets, around 20:23 Beijing time, S&P futures were up 0.6%, while Dow futures rose nearly 1%. But Nvidia’s board has launched an internal investigation into Jensen Huang, and the stock is down about 6% in premarket trading. MSTR and CRCL are also down more than 3% premarket. U.S. markets open at 22:30; if crypto stocks weaken, it’ll be hard for BTC to rally on its own.
$ETH 2,125.7, down 5.1% over 24 hours, is right at the daily Bollinger lower band of 2,120.6. It has yet to reclaim the MA200 (2,155).
$SOL 86.77, daily RSI 27.5, still in oversold territory.
October CPI data comes out tomorrow night at 21:30 Beijing time. Tonight will most likely be a pre-CPI test.
Key levels
Resistance: 74,922 (tonight’s high) / 75,000 / 75,598 (morning high)
Support: 74,540 (daily EMA200) / 73,751 (afternoon low) / 73,500 (overnight low) / 73,207 (daily MA200)
View: Range-bound with a bearish bias. The rebound is here, but there’s a lot of overhead supply between 75,000 and 75,600. Until prices can hold above that zone, I’ll treat this as a relief bounce.
Bafang’s view: Tonight, the main thing to watch is how crypto stocks move after the U.S. market opens. If 74,540 holds, BTC may chop within the range while waiting for CPI. If it falls back below, 73,500 will probably be tested again. I won’t add to my position tonight.
Do you think BTC will hit 75,000 first after the U.S. market opens, or return to 74,500 first?
(Personal opinion only; not investment advice.)
#BTC #美股 #CPI