11.9 Chen Jie Evening Analysis
Signals of easing in U.S.-Iran negotiations boosted oil prices and weakened dollar buying. In addition, the PBOC has increased its reserves for 24 consecutive months, while institutions added 0.85 tonnes, keeping buying strong at the lows. Tonight, watch Fed official Goolsbee’s remarks and tomorrow’s U.S. CPI, and be alert to high-level divergence after investment banks lowered their year-end target to 4150. Today, gold rallied nearly 80 points from 4054 to 4134. After pulling back to 4085 and stabilizing during the European session, it returned to around 4109, recovering all of Friday’s losses. The daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour MACD histograms are all positive in unison.
The daily chart is holding firmly above the middle band (4063). The European-session pullback found precise support at the 4-hour middle band (4085) and the 15-minute lower band (4085). The 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross and turned positive, confirming a solid upward structure.
At 4109, price is approaching the 15-minute upper band (4112), while the KDJ is elevated; chasing the move directly risks being shaken out during the U.S. session. Below, 4082–4092 brings together the 1-hour middle band (4093), the 4-hour middle band, and the 50% retracement of the intraday gains. It is safer to wait patiently for a pullback to this support zone before entering.
Trading strategy
Go long at 4080–4090; targets: 4120–4150–4180. Stop: 4060#xau $XAU
Signals of easing in U.S.-Iran negotiations boosted oil prices and weakened dollar buying. In addition, the PBOC has increased its reserves for 24 consecutive months, while institutions added 0.85 tonnes, keeping buying strong at the lows. Tonight, watch Fed official Goolsbee’s remarks and tomorrow’s U.S. CPI, and be alert to high-level divergence after investment banks lowered their year-end target to 4150. Today, gold rallied nearly 80 points from 4054 to 4134. After pulling back to 4085 and stabilizing during the European session, it returned to around 4109, recovering all of Friday’s losses. The daily, 4-hour, and 1-hour MACD histograms are all positive in unison.
The daily chart is holding firmly above the middle band (4063). The European-session pullback found precise support at the 4-hour middle band (4085) and the 15-minute lower band (4085). The 4-hour MACD has formed a golden cross and turned positive, confirming a solid upward structure.
At 4109, price is approaching the 15-minute upper band (4112), while the KDJ is elevated; chasing the move directly risks being shaken out during the U.S. session. Below, 4082–4092 brings together the 1-hour middle band (4093), the 4-hour middle band, and the 50% retracement of the intraday gains. It is safer to wait patiently for a pullback to this support zone before entering.
Trading strategy
Go long at 4080–4090; targets: 4120–4150–4180. Stop: 4060#xau $XAU
