$ONE In the previous post, I treated 0.001606 as the threshold where a break would mean “the next leg down,” with one condition: check whether volume picks up at the moment the low is broken. This time, price really did move through it. The current price is 0.001516, 5.6% below the level. The four-hour low was 0.001486, set in the final hour of the candle, with the close 2.0% above it.
Volume still hasn’t picked up. This four-hour candle saw 734 million tokens traded, 37.7% less than the previous candle’s 1.179 billion. The 24-hour trading volume was 11.94 million USDT, just 51% of the 23.41 million at the time of the previous post. Price moved to the next leg down, but the momentum was even weaker than in the previous candle.
Funding rates have also flipped. They were -0.0937% in the previous post; now they’re +0.0042%, with the negative stretch completely gone. The previous post noted that price wasn’t moving while funding costs leaned further to one side. This time it’s the opposite: price moved, while funding costs returned above zero.
So I wouldn’t read this candle as the start of a new acceleration phase. The breakdown is real, but it happened as volume kept shrinking and funding costs stopped leaning negative, so it looks more like a slow drift down. To say this breakdown has been reclaimed, price would first need to close above 0.001606 and hold there. A further break below 0.001486 would mark the next leg down, and we’d still need to watch volume at the moment the low breaks. I’m keeping the reverse scenario on the table too: this candle’s range is 8.6% wide, and a single four-hour candle could give back the entire move.
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Volume still hasn’t picked up. This four-hour candle saw 734 million tokens traded, 37.7% less than the previous candle’s 1.179 billion. The 24-hour trading volume was 11.94 million USDT, just 51% of the 23.41 million at the time of the previous post. Price moved to the next leg down, but the momentum was even weaker than in the previous candle.
Funding rates have also flipped. They were -0.0937% in the previous post; now they’re +0.0042%, with the negative stretch completely gone. The previous post noted that price wasn’t moving while funding costs leaned further to one side. This time it’s the opposite: price moved, while funding costs returned above zero.
So I wouldn’t read this candle as the start of a new acceleration phase. The breakdown is real, but it happened as volume kept shrinking and funding costs stopped leaning negative, so it looks more like a slow drift down. To say this breakdown has been reclaimed, price would first need to close above 0.001606 and hold there. A further break below 0.001486 would mark the next leg down, and we’d still need to watch volume at the moment the low breaks. I’m keeping the reverse scenario on the table too: this candle’s range is 8.6% wide, and a single four-hour candle could give back the entire move.
#MarketAnalysis
